Working Memorandum

 

Disclaimer: This is a working document prepared as a job of work for the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics. This topic will be discussed at EIA's spring 2007 meeting with the Committee to be held April 19 and 20, 2007. 

 

Subject: Assessment of the Sources of Differences Between NEMS Projections and Eventual Outcomes

 

From: George Lady

 

Date: March 23, 2007

 

1. Background. This memo reports on work in progress to assess the sources of differences between NEMS forecast values and the eventual values of the projected series. The method employed is to represent each NEMS projection of energy product supply or demand by a linear regression, based upon the NEMS solution series for each AEO version of NEMS. When historical data become available, the regression equation is used to determine (differentially) the impacts upon the NEMS projection if the correct values are used for the explanatory variables in the regression equations compared to projections of the explanatory variables made at the time the forecast was prepared. The series assessed for this memo were the residential sector demands for delivered energy, electricity, and natural gas; and, the commercial sector demands for delivered energy and electricity. Additional discussion of the method proposed is given in Methodology_1_22_07 available on the website established in support of the project.

 

http://optima-com.com/NEM_Evaluation/Evaluation_Method.htm

 

2. Specification. The regression specification utilized is very austere. The sectoral demand for an energy product is expressed as a linear function of the product’s price, an appropriate sectoral activity variable (total households in the case of residential sector and total floor space in the case of the commercial sector), and the lagged quantity variable (to account for intertemporal impacts and changes in infrastructure). The functional form is:

 

Qt = a + b(Pricet) + c(Drivert) + dQt-1.

 

The outcome of the estimation may be termed “consistent” if: b < 0, c > 0, and 0 < d < 1. There were thirty-five regressions run in support of this memo (for seven AEO versions and five fuel types). Of these, only two were not consistent in this sense. In order to accommodate problems of identification, the regressions were run for solution data pooled for each AEO version for the base case and High/Low world oil price cases (which shift “supply” relative to demand, identifying demand sensitivities). The NEMS versions considered were those for the 1998-2003 AEO’s, all in terms of the projections given for the year 2005.[1] For the 1998-2002 AEO versions of NEMS the data were pooled for the years 2005-2020. For the 2003 and 2004 versions of NEMS the data were pooled for the years 2005-2025. Weather effects were estimated separately from the regression results based upon assessments of fuel consumption sensitivities to weather as measured by heating and cooling degree days. The methodology and data utilized for this are reported on in the 1/22/07 evaluation methodology available at: http://optima-com.com/NEM_Evaluation/Methodolgy_1_22_07.htm

 

3. Template for Results. Consider as an example the commercial sector demand for delivered energy as approximated by the regression approach for the 2000 AEO version of NEMS. The regression results are given below:

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Commercial:      Delivered Energy...........

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998 Dollars per Million Btu)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial.....................:

 

# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Total Floor space(bill. sq. ft.):      Total......................

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial:      Delivered Energy...........

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            12.08021             -.095032              -.129394              -34.939342           

Variable# 2            71.5889               .049367               .398338               33.825154           

Variable# 3            8.807958              .567612               .563502               55.473332           

Constant                                     1.486568            

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               8.872193              .003172               .999908               2.31273763379187    

Inspection of the regression results shows good fit, significant and plausible sensitivities to the explanatory variables, and  highly convergent long run impacts (i.e., price and driver effects passed through to future time periods by the lagged endogenous variable converge to a multiple of 2.3 of their current year impact).[2]

 

Given these regression results, the projection of delivered commercial sector energy consumption for the year 2005 as given in the base case solution for the AEO2000 version of NEMS can be compared with respect to its overall accuracy; and, given this, the sources of “error” as related to differences in the projected values for price, floor space, and lagged consumption compared to the actual values.[3] The workup for the AEO2000 NEMS projections of commercial demand for energy in 2005, based upon the regression results above, is given below.

 

Model = Com_All_00S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.179705 (as % =-2.12)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_All_00S1       8.281295          8.461            -.179705(DIFF)    -2.12               n/a               n/a            

Price              12.3208           16.25             .3734             4.41             -.129394          -.085302         

Driver             67.10787          74.28            -.3541            -4.18              .398338           .343691         

Lag                8.185784          8.399            -.121             -1.43              .563502           .685347         

HDD                4524              4228              .1178             1.39              .2118              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.101             -1.19              .0702              n/a            

Total                                                 -.0849            -1               

Uncertainty                                           -.0948            -1.12             

 

These results are interpreted as follows. The NEMS projection was low by .18 quads, or 2.12% of actual. This difference is reported in the first row under impact,  with “Com_All_00S1” being the impact modeling system designation for the endogenous variable. In the next rows, each of the explanatory variables and their impacts are accounted for. The value given in the “Impact” column is the differential influence on the projection of demand associated with the difference between the projected and actual values for the explanatory variable, as derived from the coefficient from the regression equation. So that,.

            - Actual price was over 24% higher than the value projected in 2000. Given this, projected consumption should be .3734 quads high (4.41%) compared to actual.

 

            - Actual floor space was 9.66% higher than projected. Given this, projected consumption should be 4.18% low, compared to actual.

 

Continuing in this fashion projects that the forecast value should have been 1% low. Instead, it was 2.21% low. Accordingly, for want of better terminology, it is estimated that there is general “uncertainty” of -1.12%, the degree to which the projection was unaccountably low.[4] A contributing factor to this outcome may be revealed by a comparison of the sensitivities as present in the AEO2007 version of NEMS compared to the AEO2000 version. For these, the price elasticity is lower, the driver elasticity is little changed, but the lag sensitivity is larger. A potential next step in assessing the sources of forecast error is to evaluate the changes in the sensitivities themselves, in addition to differences between the actual and projected values of explanatory variables.

 

These results for the thirty-three projections evaluated with consistent regression results are summarized in the tables below. The total impact of correcting for actual versus projected values for the explanatory variables are given in the “% Adjustment” column.Of interest is that for four of the five energy projections considered: residential delivered energy, electricity, and natural gas; and, commercial sector delivered energy, the “uncertainty” measures are generally low, i.e., NEMS projections are a bit lower than they “should be,” based upon an accounting for errors in projecting explanatory variables. The exception is commercial sector electricity consumption for which the projection is generally “higher” than it “should be.”

 

Detailed workups, as above, are given in Appendix A for the thirty-three projections accounted for. The regression results for the AEO2003 and AEO2004 versions of NEMS are given in Appendix B.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1: Residential Sector Delivered Energy Consumed (Quads) in 2005

NEMS Version

 

NEMS

 

Actual

 

Difference

%

Difference

%

Adjustment

%

Uncertainty

AEO1998

*

*

*

*

*

*

AEO1999

11.572

11.39

.182

1.6

10.86

-9.26

AEO2000

11.4

11.39

.01

.1

8.14

-8.05

AEO2001

11.86

11.39

.466

4.09

10.22

-6.12

AEO2002

11.99

11.39

.602

5.28

6.33

-1.05

AEO2003

11.9

11.39

.515

4.52

6.13

-1.61

AEO2004

11.86

11.39

.470

4.12

8.00

-3.87

* Regression results not consistent.

 

Table 2: Residential Sector Electricity Consumption (Quads) in 2005

NEMS Version

 

NEMS

 

Actual

 

Difference

%

Difference

%

Adjustment

%

Uncertainty

AEO1998

4.292

4.675

-.365

-7.84

-4.03

-3.81

AEO1999

4.306

4.675

-.351

-7.55

-3.74

-3.8

AEO2000

4.372

4.675

-.285

-6.13

-2.82

-3.32

AEO2001

4.496

4.675

-.161

-3.45

-1.64

-1.81

AEO2002

4.619

4.675

-.037

-.81

1.01

-1.81

AEO2003

*

*

*

*

*

*

AEO2004

4.5

4.675

-.157

-3.36

-.45

-2.91

* Regression results not consistent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 3: Residential  Sector Natural Gas Consumption (Quads) in 2005

NEMS Version

 

NEMS

 

Actual

 

Difference

%

Difference

%

Adjustment

%

Uncertainty

AEO1998

5.467

4.984

.483

9.69

19.7

-10.02

AEO1999

5.31

4.984

.325

6.52

14.11

-7.59

AEO2000

5.22

4.984

.238

4.77

6.73

-1.96

AEO2001

5.46

4.984

.476

9.56

10.26

-.7

AEO2002

5.53

4.984

.541

10.86

15.00

-4.14

AEO2003

5.45

4.984

.469

9.41

21.15

-11.74

AEO2004

5.35

4.984

.370

7.43

12.14

-4.71

 

 

Table 4: Commercial Sector Delivered Energy Consumed (Quads) in 2005

NEMS Version

 

NEMS

 

Actual

 

Difference

%

Difference

%

Adjustment

%

Uncertainty

AEO1998

8.206

8.461

-.255

-3.02

6.64

-9.64

AEO1999

8.322

8.461

-.139

-1.64

.74

-2.38

AEO2000

8.281

8.461

-.18

-2.12

-1.00

-1.12

AEO2001

8.868

8.461

.407

4.81

4.98

-.18

AEO2002

9.048

8.461

.587

6.94

5.88

1.07

AEO2003

8.954

8.461

.493

5.83

5.95

-.11

AEO2004

8.753

8.461

.292

3.46

9.1

-5.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 5: Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption (Quads) in 2005

NEMS Version

 

NEMS

 

Actual

 

Difference

%

Difference

%

Adjustment

%

Uncertainty

AEO1998

3.839

4.322

-.483

-11.18

-5.24

-5.94

AEO1999

3.966

4.322

-.356

-8.25

-9.29

1.03

AEO2000

4.057

4.322

-.265

-6.13

-7.94

1.81

AEO2001

4.346

4.322

.024

.54

-1.68

2.23

AEO2002

4.457

4.322

.135

3.12

-1.43

4.54

AEO2003

4.486

4.322

.164

3.8

2.46

1.36

AEO2004

4.422

4.322

.100

2.32

3.37

-1.05

 

 

 

Appendix A: Impact Breakouts

 

Residential Sector Delivered Energy

 

Model = Res_All_99S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .18174 (as % = 1.6)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_All_99S1       11.57174          11.39             .18174(DIFF)      1.6                n/a               n/a            

Price              13.04349          17                1.1706            10.28            -.306132          -.101498         

Driver             110.9643          113.3            -.1219            -1.07              .511264           .416156         

Lag                11.54668          11.6             -.0125            -.11               .232393           .441493         

HDD                4524              4228              .2974             2.61              .3848              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0969            -.85               .0483              n/a            

Total                                                  1.2367            10.86           

Uncertainty                                           -1.055            -9.26            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_All_06S1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Model = Res_All_00S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .01104 (as % = .1)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_All_00S1       11.40104          11.39             .01104(DIFF)      .1                 n/a               n/a            

Price              13.02821          17.19             .9331             8.19             -.241384          -.101498         

Driver             111.3056          113.3            -.1157            -1.02              .572962           .416156         

Lag                11.33194          11.6             -.0871            -.76               .322405           .441493         

HDD                4524              4228              .293              2.57              .3848              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0955            -.84               .0483              n/a            

Total                                                  .9278             8.14            

Uncertainty                                           -.9168            -8.05            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_All_06S1

Model = Res_All_01S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .46606 (as % = 4.09)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_All_01S1       11.85606          11.39             .46606(DIFF)      4.09               n/a               n/a            

Price              12.9328           17.44             1.0212            8.97             -.235303          -.101498         

Driver             111.4456          113.3            -.1293            -1.14              .65629            .416156         

Lag                11.75364          11.6              .0664             .58               .42779            .441493         

HDD                4524              4228              .3047             2.68              .3848              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0993            -.87               .0483              n/a            

Total                                                  1.1637            10.22           

Uncertainty                                           -.6976            -6.12            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_All_06S1

 

Model = Res_All_02S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .60193 (as % = 5.28)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_All_02S1       11.99193          11.39             .60193(DIFF)      5.28               n/a               n/a            

Price              13.3416           17.82             .2739             2.4              -.065698          -.101498         

Driver             110.4103          113.3            -.0593            -.52               .19205            .416156         

Lag                11.95116          11.6              .2986             2.62              .843493           .441493         

HDD                4524              4228              .3082             2.71              .3848              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.1004            -.88               .0483              n/a            

Total                                                  .721              6.33             

Uncertainty                                           -.1191            -1.05            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_All_06S1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Model = Res_All_03S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .51469 (as % = 4.52)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_All_03S1       11.90469          11.39             .51469(DIFF)      4.52               n/a               n/a            

Price              13.73501          18.24             .3209             2.82             -.077942          -.101498         

Driver             110.7763          113.3            -.0249            -.22               .093376           .416156         

Lag                11.80797          11.6              .1955             1.72              .93198            .441493         

HDD                4524              4228              .306              2.69              .3848              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0997            -.88               .0483              n/a            

Total                                                  .6978             6.13            

Uncertainty                                           -.1831            -1.61            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_All_06S1

 

Model = Res_All_04S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .46968 (as % = 4.12)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_All_04S1       11.85968          11.39             .46968(DIFF)      4.12               n/a               n/a            

Price              14.76384          18.56             .6159             5.41             -.182545          -.101498         

Driver             113.6682          113.3             .0225             .2                .58831            .416156         

Lag                11.76392          11.6              .0662             .58               .399994           .441493         

HDD                4524              4228              .3048             2.68              .3848              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0993            -.87               .0483              n/a            

Total                                                  .9101             8               

Uncertainty                                           -.4404            -3.87            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_All_06S1

 

 

Residential Sector Electricity

 

Model = Res_Elec_98S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.365241 (as % =-7.84)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Elec_98S1      4.291759          4.657            -.365241(DIFF)    -7.84               n/a               n/a            

Price              22.0358           22.98             .0078             .17              -.036006          -.07028          

Driver             111.0799          113.3            -.104             -2.23              1.176614          .754771         

Lag                4.239554          4.414            -.025             -.54               .141239           .377707         

HDD                4524              4228              .0226             .49               .0781              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0892            -1.92              .1191              n/a            

Total                                                 -.1878            -4.03            

Uncertainty                                           -.1774            -3.81            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Elec_07S1

 

 

Model = Res_Elec_99S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.35147 (as % =-7.55)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Elec_99S1      4.30553           4.657            -.35147(DIFF)     -7.55               n/a               n/a            

Price              22.78456          23.36             .0236             .51              -.187024          -.07028          

Driver             110.9643          113.3            -.0322            -.69               .347765           .754771         

Lag                4.266979          4.414            -.0991            -2.13              .664569           .377707         

HDD                4524              4228              .0227             .49               .0781              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0895            -1.92              .1191              n/a            

Total                                                 -.1745            -3.74            

Uncertainty                                           -.177             -3.8             

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Elec_07S1

 

Model = Res_Elec_00S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.28531 (as % =-6.13)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Elec_00S1      4.37169           4.657            -.28531(DIFF)     -6.13               n/a               n/a            

Price              21.89697          23.62             .0457             .98              -.118286          -.07028          

Driver             111.3056          113.3            -.0953            -2.05              1.180857          .754771         

Lag                4.310937          4.414            -.0133            -.29               .127631           .377707         

HDD                4524              4228              .023              .49               .0781              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0908            -1.95              .1191              n/a            

Total                                                 -.1307            -2.82            

Uncertainty                                           -.1546            -3.32            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Elec_07S1

 

Model = Res_Elec_01S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.160624 (as % =-3.45)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Elec_01S1      4.496376          4.657            -.160624(DIFF)    -3.45               n/a               n/a            

Price              21.90037          23.96             .0391             .84              -.081454          -.07028          

Driver             111.4456          113.3            -.0307            -.66               .387132           .754771         

Lag                4.394571          4.414            -.0149            -.32               .754763           .377707         

HDD                4524              4228              .0237             .51               .0781              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0934            -2.01              .1191              n/a            

Total                                                 -.0762            -1.64            

Uncertainty                                           -.0844            -1.81            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Elec_07S1

 

 

 

 

Model = Res_Elec_02S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.037639 (as % =-.81)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Elec_02S1      4.619361          4.657            -.037639(DIFF)    -.81                n/a               n/a            

Price              22.38321          24.48             .0096             .21              -.020096          -.07028          

Driver             110.4103          113.3            -.0167            -.36               .134219           .754771         

Lag                4.548359          4.414             .1256             2.7               .921631           .377707         

HDD                4524              4228              .0243             .52               .0781              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.096             -2.06              .1191              n/a            

Total                                                  .0469             1.01            

Uncertainty                                           -.0845            -1.81            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Elec_07S1

 

Model = Res_Elec_04S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.156604 (as % =-3.36)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Elec_04S1      4.500396          4.657            -.156604(DIFF)    -3.36               n/a               n/a            

Price              24.12649          25.51             .0222             .48              -.072152          -.07028          

Driver             113.6682          113.3             .0074             .16               .481013           .754771         

Lag                4.442669          4.414             .0192             .41               .660928           .377707         

HDD                4524              4228              .0237             .51               .0781              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0935            -2.01              .1191              n/a            

Total                                                 -.021             -.45             

Uncertainty                                           -.1356            -2.91            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Elec_07S1

 

 

Residential Sector Natural Gas

 

Model = Res_Gas_98S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .482733 (as % = 9.69)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Gas_98S1       5.466733          4.984             .482733(DIFF)     9.69               n/a               n/a            

Price              5.548978          10.35             .6712             13.47            -.132855          -.083212         

Driver             111.0799          113.3            -.0392            -.79               .370191           .12874          

Lag                5.454708          5.016             .149              2.99              .337684           .526668         

HDD                4524              4228              .2011             4.03              .5538              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444              0                 0                 0                  n/a            

Total                                                  .9821             19.7            

Uncertainty                                           -.4994            -10.02           

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Gas_07S1

 

 

Model = Res_Gas_99S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .325196 (as % = 6.52)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Gas_99S1       5.309196          4.984             .325196(DIFF)     6.52               n/a               n/a            

Price              6.237702          10.52             .3053             6.13             -.074859          -.083212         

Driver             110.9643          113.3            -.0138            -.28               .126818           .12874          

Lag                5.297505          5.016             .2165             4.34              .763787           .526668         

HDD                4524              4228              .1953             3.92              .5538              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444              0                 0                 0                  n/a            

Total                                                  .7033             14.11           

Uncertainty                                           -.3781            -7.59            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Gas_07S1

 

Model = Res_Gas_00S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .237708 (as % = 4.77)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Gas_00S1       5.221708          4.984             .237708(DIFF)     4.77               n/a               n/a            

Price              6.622416          10.64             .1106             2.22             -.032183          -.083212         

Driver             111.3056          113.3            -.0435            -.87               .470968           .12874          

Lag                5.19688           5.016             .0764             1.53              .418963           .526668         

HDD                4524              4228              .1921             3.85              .5538              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444              0                 0                 0                  n/a            

Total                                                  .3356             6.73            

Uncertainty                                           -.0979            -1.96            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Gas_07S1

 

Model = Res_Gas_01S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .476339 (as % = 9.56)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Gas_01S1       5.460339          4.984             .476339(DIFF)     9.56               n/a               n/a            

Price              6.629639          10.79             .0823             1.65             -.022099          -.083212         

Driver             111.4456          113.3            -.0331            -.66               .367348           .12874          

Lag                5.430046          5.016             .2611             5.24              .624775           .526668         

HDD                4524              4228              .2008             4.03              .5538              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444              0                 0                 0                  n/a            

Total                                                  .5111             10.26           

Uncertainty                                           -.0348            -.7              

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Gas_07S1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Model = Res_Gas_02S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .541189 (as % = 10.86)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Gas_02S1       5.525189          4.984             .541189(DIFF)     10.86              n/a               n/a            

Price              6.846433          11.03             .2181             4.38             -.061443          -.083212         

Driver             110.4103          113.3            -.0388            -.78               .275011           .12874          

Lag                5.540764          5.016             .3648             7.32              .690592           .526668         

HDD                4524              4228              .2032             4.08              .5538              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444              0                 0                 0                  n/a            

Total                                                  .7473             15              

Uncertainty                                           -.2061            -4.14            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Gas_07S1

 

Model = Res_Gas_03S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .468855 (as % = 9.41)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Gas_03S1       5.452855          4.984             .468855(DIFF)     9.41               n/a               n/a            

Price              7.310425          11.29             .4952             9.94             -.160146          -.083212         

Driver             110.7763          113.3            -.0175            -.35               .144726           .12874          

Lag                5.421082          5.016             .3757             7.54              .920028           .526668         

HDD                4524              4228              .2006             4.02              .5538              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444              0                 0                 0                  n/a            

Total                                                  1.054             21.15           

Uncertainty                                           -.5851            -11.74           

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Gas_07S1

 

Model = Res_Gas_04S1 for Year = 2005

Residential Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .370228 (as % = 7.43)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Res_Gas_04S1       5.354228          4.984             .370228(DIFF)     7.43               n/a               n/a            

Price              8.394644          11.49             .2972             5.96             -.132641          -.083212         

Driver             113.6682          113.3             .0091             .18               .532649           .12874          

Lag                5.324489          5.016             .1019             2.05              .327913           .526668         

HDD                4524              4228              .1969             3.95              .5538              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444              0                 0                 0                  n/a            

Total                                                  .6051             12.14           

Uncertainty                                           -.2349            -4.71            

 

Elasticity Update File = Res_Gas_07S1

 

 

 

 

Commercial Sector Delivered Energy

 

Model = Com_All_98S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.255236 (as % =-3.02)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_All_98S1       8.205764          8.461            -.255236(DIFF)    -3.02               n/a               n/a            

Price              11.83853          15.81             .2433             2.88             -.080432          -.085302         

Driver             79.01656          74.28             .3611             4.27              .733622           .343691         

Lag                8.122841          8.399            -.0603            -.71               .216944           .685347         

HDD                4524              4228              .1168             1.38              .2118              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.1001            -1.18              .0702              n/a            

Total                                                  .5608             6.64            

Uncertainty                                           -.816             -9.64             

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_All_06S1

 

Model = Com_All_99S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.138694 (as % =-1.64)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_All_99S1       8.322306          8.461            -.138694(DIFF)    -1.64               n/a               n/a            

Price              12.33938          16.07             .5951             7.03             -.210698          -.085302         

Driver             66.28476          74.28            -.4788            -5.66              .471488           .343691         

Lag                8.245002          8.399            -.0705            -.83               .454086           .685347         

HDD                4524              4228              .1184             1.4               .2118              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.1015            -1.2               .0702              n/a            

Total                                                  .0627             .74             

Uncertainty                                           -.2014            -2.38            

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_All_06S1

Model = Com_All_00S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.179705 (as % =-2.12)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_All_00S1       8.281295          8.461            -.179705(DIFF)    -2.12               n/a               n/a            

Price              12.3208           16.25             .3734             4.41             -.129394          -.085302         

Driver             67.10787          74.28            -.3541            -4.18              .398338           .343691         

Lag                8.185784          8.399            -.121             -1.43              .563502           .685347         

HDD                4524              4228              .1178             1.39              .2118              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.101             -1.19              .0702              n/a            

Total                                                 -.0849            -1               

Uncertainty                                           -.0948            -1.12            

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_All_06S1

 

 

 

 

 

Model = Com_All_01S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .406691 (as % = 4.81)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_All_01S1       8.867691          8.461             .406691(DIFF)     4.81               n/a               n/a            

Price              12.39135          16.49             .1922             2.27             -.057421          -.085302         

Driver             70.85025          74.28            -.0571            -.68               .130959           .343691         

Lag                8.715933          8.399             .2686             3.18              .837775           .685347         

HDD                4524              4228              .1262             1.49              .2118              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.1081            -1.28              .0702              n/a            

Total                                                  .4217             4.98            

Uncertainty                                           -.015             -.18             

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_All_06S1

 

Model = Com_All_02S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .587476 (as % = 6.94)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_All_02S1       9.048476          8.461             .587476(DIFF)     6.94               n/a               n/a            

Price              12.95599          16.85             .2061             2.44             -.066927          -.085302         

Driver             71.67374          74.28            -.0979            -1.16              .292822           .343691         

Lag                8.888235          8.399             .3703             4.38              .744366           .685347         

HDD                4524              4228              .1288             1.52              .2118              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.1103            -1.3               .0702              n/a            

Total                                                  .4969             5.88            

Uncertainty                                            .0906             1.07             

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_All_06S1

 

Model = Com_All_03S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .493291 (as % = 5.83)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_All_03S1       8.954291          8.461             .493291(DIFF)     5.83               n/a               n/a            

Price              13.157            17.25             .1099             1.3              -.035434          -.085302         

Driver             76.09364          74.28             .0369             .44               .170318           .343691         

Lag                8.784138          8.399             .3374             3.99              .861941           .685347         

HDD                4524              4228              .1274             1.51              .2118              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.1092            -1.29              .0702              n/a            

Total                                                  .5024             5.95            

Uncertainty                                           -.0091            -.11             

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_All_06S1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Model = Com_All_04S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .292336 (as % = 3.46)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_All_04S1       8.753336          8.461             .292336(DIFF)     3.46               n/a               n/a            

Price              14.13587          17.55             .376              4.44             -.150072          -.085302         

Driver             77.57358          74.28             .3376             3.99              .873743           .343691         

Lag                8.523619          8.399             .0388             .46               .306432           .685347         

HDD                4524              4228              .1246             1.47              .2118              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.1067            -1.26              .0702              n/a            

Total                                                  .7702             9.1             

Uncertainty                                           -.4779            -5.65            

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_All_06S1

 

Commercial Sector Electricity

 

 

Model = Com_Elec_98S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.483139 (as % =-11.18)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_Elec_98S1      3.838861          4.322            -.483139(DIFF)    -11.18              n/a               n/a            

Price              19.81471          21.03             .0104             .24              -.037944          -.041997         

Driver             79.01656          74.28             .1032             2.39              .436252           .336104         

Lag                3.785793          4.194            -.2656            -6.15              .644204           .744692         

HDD                4524              4228              .0109             .25               .0421              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0852            -1.97              .1272              n/a            

Total                                                 -.2263            -5.24            

Uncertainty                                           -.2568            -5.94            

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_Elec_07S1

 

 

Model = Com_Elec_99S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.35645 (as % =-8.25)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_Elec_99S1      3.96555           4.322            -.35645(DIFF)     -8.25               n/a               n/a             

Price              20.11321          21.38             .0429             .99              -.144421          -.041997         

Driver             66.28476          74.28            -.178             -4.12              .357303           .336104          

Lag                3.909569          4.194            -.1891            -4.38              .657179           .744692         

HDD                4524              4228              .0113             .26               .0421              n/a             

CDD                1215              1444             -.0881            -2.04              .1272              n/a            

Total                                                 -.401             -9.29            

Uncertainty                                            .0446             1.03            

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_Elec_07S1

 

 

Model = Com_Elec_00S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.264922 (as % =-6.13)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_Elec_00S1      4.057078          4.322            -.264922(DIFF)    -6.13               n/a               n/a            

Price              19.30535          21.62             .0523             1.21             -.09446           -.041997         

Driver             67.10787          74.28            -.1904            -4.41              .428123           .336104         

Lag                3.988374          4.194            -.1265            -2.93              .609061           .744692         

HDD                4524              4228              .0115             .27               .0421              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0901            -2.08              .1272              n/a            

Total                                                 -.3432            -7.94            

Uncertainty                                            .0783             1.81            

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_Elec_07S1

 

Model = Com_Elec_01S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .023534 (as % = .54)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_Elec_01S1      4.345534          4.322             .023534(DIFF)     .54                n/a               n/a            

Price              19.58086          21.93             .0252             .58              -.038449          -.041997         

Driver             70.85025          74.28            -.0464            -1.07              .206888           .336104         

Lag                4.232958          4.194             .0323             .75               .814475           .744692          

HDD                4524              4228              .0124             .29               .0421              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0965            -2.23              .1272              n/a             

Total                                                 -.073             -1.68            

Uncertainty                                            .0965             2.23            

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_Elec_07S1

 

Model = Com_Elec_02S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .134939 (as % = 3.12)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_Elec_02S1      4.456939          4.322             .134939(DIFF)     3.12               n/a               n/a            

Price              20.4003           22.41             .0293             .68              -.054912          -.041997         

Driver             71.67374          74.28            -.0924            -2.14              .53816            .336104         

Lag                4.336136          4.194             .0879             2.03              .605096           .744692         

HDD                4524              4228              .0127             .29               .0421              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.099             -2.29              .1272              n/a            

Total                                                 -.0615            -1.43            

Uncertainty                                            .1964             4.54            

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_Elec_07S1

 

 

 

 

 

 

Model = Com_Elec_03S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .164278 (as % = 3.8)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_Elec_03S1      4.486278          4.322             .164278(DIFF)     3.8                n/a               n/a            

Price              20.11637          22.95             .0058             .14              -.007469          -.041997         

Driver             76.09364          74.28             .0099             .23               .086087           .336104         

Lag                4.379218          4.194             .1767             4.09              .934151           .744692         

HDD                4524              4228              .0128             .3                .0421              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0996            -2.3               .1272              n/a            

Total                                                  .1055             2.46            

Uncertainty                                            .0588             1.36            

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_Elec_07S1

 

Model = Com_Elec_04S1 for Year = 2005

Commercial Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual = .100298 (as % = 2.32)

Source             NEMS              Actual            Impact            Percent           Elasticity        Updated Elas    

Com_Elec_04S1      4.422298          4.322             .100298(DIFF)     2.32               n/a               n/a            

Price              21.06966          23.35             .0256             .59              -.041247          -.041997         

Driver             77.57358          74.28             .1634             3.78              .789447           .336104         

Lag                4.277982          4.194             .0422             .98               .492013           .744692         

HDD                4524              4228              .0126             .29               .0421              n/a            

CDD                1215              1444             -.0982            -2.27              .1272              n/a            

Total                                                  .1456             3.37            

Uncertainty                                           -.0453            -1.05             

 

Elasticity Update File = Com_Elec_07S1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Appendix B: Selected Regression Results

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Residential:      Delivered Energy          

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:

 

# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Households (millions):      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:      Delivered Energy          

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            14.1934              -.071243              -.077942              -2.329777            

Variable# 2            122.9855              .00985                .093376               1.471315            

Variable# 3            12.86303              .93998                .93198                15.093487           

Constant                                     .682232             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               12.97345              .030305               .997982               16.6611129623459    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2003.1105c.ran

hw2003.1105c.ran

lw2003.1105c.ran

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Residential:      Delivered Energy          

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:

 

# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Households (millions):      Total                      

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:      Delivered Energy          

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            14.73511             -.162239              -.182545              -8.205154            

Variable# 2            125.9316              .06118                .58831                7.714831            

Variable# 3            12.98012              .403564               .399994               5.278339            

Constant                                     2.543787            

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               13.09599              .022989               .998981               1.67662582406159    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2004.1017e.ran

hw2004.1017b.ran

lw2004.1017b.ran

                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Residential:    Electricity                  

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:    Electricity                 

 

# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Households (millions):      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            22.67134             -.013483              -.058215              -1.249457            

Variable# 2            122.9855             -.001709              -.040028              -.316597             

Variable# 3            5.179879              1.03009               1.016167              11.338126           

Constant                                     .43097              

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               5.250851              .012689               .99913               -33.2336324360253    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2003.1105c.ran

hw2003.1105c.ran

lw2003.1105c.ran

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Residential:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:    Electricity                 

 

# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Households (millions):      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            23.52394             -.01606               -.072152              -3.767942            

Variable# 2            125.9316              .02                   .481013               4.194532            

Variable# 3            5.163452              .670227               .660928               8.463868            

Constant                                    -.36542              

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               5.236103              .009763               .999547               3.03238894633581    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2004.1017e.ran

hw2004.1017b.ran

lw2004.1017b.ran

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Residential:    Natural Gas                 

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:      Natural Gas               

 

# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Households (millions):      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:    Natural Gas                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            7.589383             -.124427              -.160146              -5.674552            

Variable# 2            122.9855              .006939               .144726               3.889079            

Variable# 3            5.849164              .927498               .920028               23.829574           

Constant                                     .562492             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               5.896653              .013052               .998058               13.7927229593666    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2003.1105c.ran

hw2003.1105c.ran

lw2003.1105c.ran

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Residential:    Natural Gas                 

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:      Natural Gas               

 

# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Households (millions):      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Residential:    Natural Gas                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            8.103702             -.09601               -.132641              -8.638837            

Variable# 2            125.9316              .02481                .532649               8.682118            

Variable# 3            5.820245              .330475               .327913               4.423636            

Constant                                     1.595942            

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               5.865715              .012285               .998013               1.49359620626564    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2004.1017e.ran

hw2004.1017b.ran

lw2004.1017b.ran

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Commercial:      Delivered Energy          

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial:

 

# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Total Floor space (billion squar:      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial:      Delivered Energy          

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            13.93013             -.02684               -.035434              -2.150808            

Variable# 2            88.28918              .020355               .170318               3.089422            

Variable# 3            10.3825               .875977               .861941               19.724726           

Constant                                     .033498             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               10.55157              .011865               .999875               8.06302056876547    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2003.1105c.ran

hw2003.1105c.ran

lw2003.1105c.ran

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Commercial:      Delivered Energy          

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial:

 

# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Total Floor space (billion squar:      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial:      Delivered Energy          

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            14.35792             -.110138              -.150072              -12.012723           

Variable# 2            89.82951              .102493               .873743               12.089572           

Variable# 3            10.361                .311646               .306432               5.548633            

Constant                                    -.317208             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               10.5373               .01185                .999875               1.45274088623005    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2004.1017e.ran

hw2004.1017b.ran

lw2004.1017b.ran

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Commercial:    Electricity                  

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial:    Electricity                 

 

# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Total Floor space (billion squar:      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            20.33087             -.002064              -.007469              -.973534             

Variable# 2            88.28918              .005478               .086087               1.985501            

Variable# 3            5.500643              .954102               .934151               32.086885           

Constant                                    -.071736             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               5.618124              .003294               .99998                21.7874417185934    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2003.1105c.ran

hw2003.1105c.ran

lw2003.1105c.ran

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

   Sector and Source:  Commercial:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002 Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial:    Electricity                 

 

# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Key Indicators and Consumption:  Total Floor space (billion squar:      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

     Sector and Source:  Commercial:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            20.73894             -.01123               -.041247              -3.51527             

Variable# 2            89.82951              .049622               .789447               4.599612            

Variable# 3            5.523816              .50293                .492013               4.703427            

Constant                                    -1.35633             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               5.646385              .007186               .999909               2.01178908403243    

 

Data pooled for the years  2005 to  2025 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2004.1017e.ran

hw2004.1017b.ran

lw2004.1017b.ran

 

 

 


[1] NEMS solutions for the first several years are “benchmarked” to, or otherwise combined with, projections based upon EIA’s short term projection methodology. Accordingly, for the 2005 projections prepared for the 2003 and 2004 AEO’s, there is the issue of the degree to which the projections represent NEMS. This iseue is beyond the scope of the present effort and the projections are included for comparative purposes.

[2] The regression results supporting the impact analysis presented here for the 1998-2002 versions of NEMS are provided in an appendix to the 2/25/07 memo on price elasiticities avaialble at: http://optima-com.com/NEM_Evaluation/Price_Elasticities_2_25_07.htm . The regression results for the years 2003 and 2004 were rerun compared to those reported in the above to pool data for the years 2005-2025 (here) rather than 2010-2025. These results are presented in Appendix B below.

 

[3]The values used for “actual” are those reported in the AEO2007 base case for the year 2005.  “Actual” values in price (given in $2005 in the AEO2007 solutions) are converted to $1998 for comparison to the AEO2000 solution values using the PGDP deflator.  The exception is the price of delivered energy. This price is not reported in the AEO2007 solutions. Accordingly, the price reported (appropriately deflated) in the AEO2006 base case is used for “actual.”

[4] Across the five, principal AEO scenarios, the range of values for commercial sector consumption was 8.204-8.352. Accordingly, although actual consumption is higher than the high side of this range, the :”error” (already very small) is to that degree even smaller.