George M. Lady

Email: george.lady@temple.edu

 

EDUCATION

Diploma: Sidwell Friends School, Washington, D.C., 1957.

A.B.(Economics): The George Washington University, 1961.

A.M.(Economics): The George Washington University, 1963.

Ph.D.(Political Economy): Johns Hopkins University, 1967.

HONORS AND AWARDS

University Teaching Fellow: The George Washington University, 1962.

Gilman Fellow: The Johns Hopkins University, 1963.

Johns Hopkins Ford Fellow: The Johns Hopkins University, 1964 - 1967.

NSF Sponsored Research: Rice University, 1967 - 1968.

Superior Service Award: Federal Energy Administration, 1975.

Special Achievement Award: Federal Energy Administration, 1976.

Superior Achievement Award: U.S. Department of Energy, 1980.

Merit Points Awarded in Various Years: Temple University, 1981-present.

Award for Outstanding Research given by the Economics Department, Temple University for AY 2011-2012, based on the paper: “Structural Models, Information and Inherited Restrictions,” with Andrew Buck, Economic Modelling, 28, Issue 5, November 2011, pp. 2820-2831..

ACADEMIC EMPLOYMENT

Professor: Temple University, 1981 - present. Teaching responsibilities have included: macro- and microeconomic theory, mathematical economics, energy economics, and computer assisted economic analysis. Research interests include models of options pricing, futures pricing as measures of market expectations, energy product pricing and depletion rents, statistical and convex programming approximations of process models, efficient algorithms to detect qualitatively decidable magnitudes in economic models, and conceptual and algorithmic methods to assess the information content of mathematical models..

Recent research projects include the development of software based analysis techniques designed to assess the elements of an inverse Jacobian matrix based upon a nonparametric specification of the Jacobian matrix. The computer programs apply mathematical results derived separately on the stability and invertibility of matrices as related to characteristics of their signed directed graphs. Applications of the results have been found in computer model quality control and the evaluation of econometric models.

Recent Service: Department Promotion and Tenure Committee and Graduate Affairs Committee, panel member for proceedings sponsored by Temple’s Office of Student Conduct and Community Standards.

Teaching: Developed and installed in the appropriate Temple Computer Labs the software application ECONSIM, the basis for Economics 3544. The software is maintained and expanded annually.

Lecturer: University of Maryland, 1968 - 1974.

Assistant Professor: Rice University, 1967 - 1968.

Associate Professorial Lecturer: The George Washington University, 1968 - 1981.

Lecturer: The George Washington University, 1962 - 1967.

 Research Scientist: The Logistics Research Project of The George Washington University, 1962 - 1967. University based sponsored research on the use of large mathematical systems in problem solving with applications to problems of weapons' system supply and readiness. The research utilized scaling theory, recursive optimization, and the differential analysis of systems of equations.

NON-ACADEMIC EMPLOYMENT

OPTIMA Consulting Services, 1983 - present. Provides advice and software development on the use of mathematical and statistical techniques in the development of information products to support management decision making and analysis. A particular emphasis is the integration of information requirements and specific management needs through the use of interactive software tailored to user specifications. Applications include mathematical processing and graphical displays of components from the solution sets of large forecasting models, the integration and analysis of interregional data describing alternative technologies for commercial building heating and cooling, models of options pricing, and the risk/return performance of financial futures contracts.

Decision Analysis Corporation, 1985 - 1998. Provides advice and technical services in the development and use of mathematical and statistical models of energy production, distribution, and consumption. Specific projects include: the estimation of a reduced form version of the Oil Market Module, a model of petroleum product refining and distribution, based upon "pseudo data" generated by the Oil Trade Model, a large programming based model of international petroleum product production and distribution; an assessment of the scope of and problems with measures of the environmental and other external impacts of energy production and consumption; participated in the design of (the National Energy Modeling System's) components for residential and commercial energy consumption; and conducted an assessment of Federal Government intervention in energy markets and its consequences.

 ANSTEC, 1991 - 1994. Developed the analytical and software basis for finding the signs of comparative statics multipliers based upon the signs of the elements of a mathematical model's Jacobean matrix. Developed an application of the software for the Oil Market Simulation (OMS), a model of international oil pricing and the Oil and Gas Supply Model.

Senior Manager: U.S. Department of Energy (and predecessor organizations), 1974 - 1981. Specific positions:

Director, Office of Analysis Oversight and Access: SES - IV, 1979 - 1981. Designed and directed the application of methods to control the quality of large mathematical, computer based systems used in energy policy analysis. Developed standards for model documentation, verification, validation, and access; developed the theory and application of specialized software for investigating computer based model characteristics; sponsored university and U.S. Bureau of Standards based symposia to stimulate active, academic interest in the new field of Model Quality Control.

Director, Office of Coal, Nuclear and Electric Power Analysis: GS - 16/3, 1975 - 1979. Responsible for all data analysis and modeling in the assigned energy types. Designed and directed the use of systems that forecast energy supply availability up to twenty years into the future under a variety of geological, economic, and regulatory assumptions. Applications included the study of the economic consequences of: a curtailment of nuclear based supply development, the imposition of more stringent environmental standards on energy use, and the general issue of energy price regulation.

Chief, Short-Term Energy Forecasting Division: GS - 15/5, 1974 - 1975. Designed automated systems and directed the preparation of forecasts of short-term energy supply and demand. A particular emphasis was that of determining the consequences of supply disruptions due to such as import embargoes, coal miners' strikes, and surges in energy demand such as that related to severely cold weather.

Program Manager: The Resource Management Corporation, 1968 - 1974. Designed and directed contract research projects to evaluate a variety of government based programs and systems. Techniques utilized included multivariate parametric and non-parametric statistics, optimization theory, directed graphs, Markov Processes, queuing theory, and general cost/benefit analysis. Specific projects included: Evaluation of manpower training programs; development of rigorous models for long range planning; analysis of transportation systems' cost/benefits; mathematical simulation of the Navy Supply System; evaluation of alternative land combat system designs; and analysis of determinants of reserve component accession rates.

 RECENT PROJECTS

Analysis of the economic consequences of government intervention in the markets for energy products in support of: Federal Energy Subsidies: Direct and Indirect Interventions In Energy Markets, DOE/EIA/SR/EMEU/92-02, November 1992.

Development of SGNSOLVE.EXE, a microcomputer based algorithm for testing the Boolean and Qualitative characteristics of a matrix' inverse. An application was made for the Department Of Energy's Oil And Gas Supply Model: Structural And Qualitative Analysis Of The Onshore Lower 48 Conventional Oil And Gas Supply Model, in partial satisfaction of DOE Contract Number DE-AC01-91EI21938, Task 93023, October 1993.

Development of computer based methods for assessing the invertibility and stability of systems of simultaneous equations, Tutorial For Structural And Qualitative Analysis, prepared for the Office Of Statistical Standards, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, January 1994.

Development and computer implementation of an algorithm for applying kernel regression and LP-based smoothing techniques to a large pseudo-data-set generated by a model of national refinery operations: Reduced Form Model Development For The Petroleum Market Module (PMM) Including Speed And Accuracy Tests, prepared in partial satisfaction of EIA Contract Number DE-AC01-92EI21946 (Task 93-020), Decision Analysis Corporation Of Virginia, May 1994.

Development of mathematical algorithms and their computer implementation to enable the comparison of energy system forecasts prepared by DOE using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): Determination Of The Basis For Differences Between NEMS And STIFS Forecasts, prepared in partial satisfaction of EIA Contract Number DE-AC01-92EI21946, Task 95107, Decision Analysis Corporation Of Virginia, December 1995.

Development of mathematical algorithms and their computer implementation to enable the parameterization of energy consuming equipment choices: The Scope Of Projecting The Efficiency Of Residential And Commercial Sector Energy Consumption, Decision Analysis Corporation Of Virginia. February 1996.

COMPARE.EXE software prepared for the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department Of Energy to enable comparisons and diagnostic tests of the solution files generated by the Department's computer based forecasting models, OPTIMA Consulting Services, August 1996.

Development of computer simulations of electricity generation and dispatch at a state level of geographic detail to enable an analysis of the consequences of the deregulation of markets for electricity , Decision Analysis Corporation Of Virginia.

Development of a computer simulation, BINSIM, of commercial building heating and cooling based upon alternative technologies and standards for building-shell thermal characteristics. Data were assembled for over one hundred heating/cooling technologies and building thermal shell characteristics for thirty-two climate typologies (BINS). Economic and behavioral assumptions were utilized in forecasting technology selection for new commercial buildings in the time frame 1996-2000. Based on these projections the efficiency of alternative regulatory formulae was assessed and presented in: Analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-1989R Building Envelope Requirements (written with Jason Glazer), Gas Research Institute, October 1997.

Development of graf98, a PC-based graphic interface utilized by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS generates large, 2.4MB, solution sets describing projections of domestic and international production and consumption of energy products through the year 2020. Solutions are prepared under alternative assumptions concerning economic performance, the characteristics of international markets for oil, technological change, and government regulatory policies. Currently, NEMS is being used to assess the economic and other impacts of reducing carbon emissions from the combustion of fossil-based energy as agreed in Kyoto, Japan in the fall of 1997. graf98 enables EIA analysts to bring on screen solution components from up to eight alternative solution sets and implement a variety of diagnostics designed to describe NEMS performance and assess the reasonableness of intra- and intersolution variations (on going), 1997-1999.

Software and Users Guide for ECONSIM, computer-based simulations of economic activity developed in support of Economics 3544. This program is installed in Temple’s PC-labs and used to support courses in computer-based analysis and modeling. Developed over the years 2001 and 2003. and expanded and maintained since.

Development of graf2000, a follow-on of graf98, including components that enable comparisons of solution series volatility, 2000-2006.

Development of NEMSSIM, various versions: Linear and kernel regression based approximations of the National Energy Modeling System. NEMSSIM supports rapid response estimates of large model results, audits of model variable/parameter sensitivities and the partition of forecasting errors between inherent uncertainty and errors in forecasting exogenous variables, 2001-2006.

Developed Sim_Inverse and Qual_Check, compiled as a Windows applications using Microsoft’s Visual Studio 6. These applications conduct a Monte Carlo simulation of the distribution of reduced form sign patterns based upon assumed structural sign patterns to determine the information content of a structural hypothesis and the feasibility of estimated reduced forms to correspond to proposed structural arrays, 2007-2011. The software supported the findings in the two publications noted below:

            “Structural Models, Information and Inherited Restrictions,” with Andrew Buck, Economic Modelling, 28, 2011, pp. 2820-2831..

            “Structural Sign Patterns and Reduced Form Restrictions, “ with Andrew Buck, Economic Modelling, 29, 2012, pp. 462-470.

Developed Big_Sim, compiled as a Windows application using Microsoft’s Visual Studio 6. This application complements the two applications cited above. These two applications are limited to an analysis of reduced form sign patterns limited to less than 30 bits of information, i.e., thirty signs. Big_Sim can assess very much larger arrays. It can also isolate particular entries in the reduced form for analysis. This feature enables a further analysis of the underlying system of inequalities to be parsed to identify the inconsistences associated with a falsified reduced form. The software was developed and tested in the summer of 2013. This software is intended for use in the development of the paper: Qualitative Comparative Statics, now being written with coauthor Andrew Buck.

 

 

RECENT CONFERENCES AND INVITED PAPERS

Present at the national meeting of the International Atlantic Economic Converence, Boston, MA. Delivered the invited paper: “Nonparametric Comparative Statics.” October 1999.

 Graf2000, Graphic Interface and Diagnostic Tool for the National Energy Modeling System,” Technical Report, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, August 2000.;

October 2000: Attended the Annual American Statistical Association Conference on Energy Data and Analysis, Washington, D.C. Presented the paper: “Computer-Based Diagnostics for Long Term Energy System Forecasts.”

“Kernel Regression-Based Approximations of the National Energy Modeling System,” Technical Report, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, August 2001.

“Linear Regression Approximations of Major Energy Forecast Series,” Technical Report, Statistical Methods Group, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, August 2002.

October 2002: Attended the Annual American Statistical Association Conference on Energy Data and Analysis, Washington, D.C.

“Comparisons of Variable/Parameter Sensitivities for Alternative Solutions of the National Energy Modeling System,” Technical Report, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, June 2003.

“Alternative Elasticity Measures Across NEMS Solutions,” Technical Report, Statistical Methods Group, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, June 2004.

October 2004: Attended the Annual American Statistical Association Conference on Energy Data and Analysis, Washington, D.C. Presented the paper: “Methods for Assessing NEMS Solution Data for Interpretive and Diagnostic Purposes.”

January 2005: “Solution Diagnostics for NEMS Scenario Development,” presented to the  Energy Information Administration. DOE.

June 2005: “Graphic and numerical processing of Alternative NEMS’ Version Results,” presented to the Energy Infomration Administration, DOE.

October 2005: annual meetings of International Atlantic Economic Association. Presented the paper (with Andrew Buck, “Approximation of Large, Computer-Based Economic Models.”

October 2006: Attended the Annual American Statistical Association Conference on Energy Data and Analysis, Washington, D.C. Presented the paper: “National Energy Modeling System Performance Evaluation.”

April 2007: Attended the Annual American Statistical Association Conference on Energy Data and Analysis, Washington, D.C. Presented the paper: “Update: National Energy Modeling System Performance Evaluation.”

October 2007: Attended the Annual American Statistical Association Conference on Energy Data and Analysis, Washington, D.C. Presented the paper: “Using Regression Analysis for Forecast Evaluation.”

October 2008: Attended the Annual American Statistical Association Conference on Energy Data and Analysis, Washington, D.C. Presented the paper: “Sensitivity Analysis of EIA Forecasting Systems.”

July 2009: “Preliminary Discovery of the Significance of Corporate Knowledge Management Technology “ with David E. Lady. Presentation at the International Conference on Knowledge Generation, Communication, and Management, in Orlando, Florida.

February 2010: Qualitative Matrices and Information,” with Andrew Buck. Presentation at the annual meeting of the Eastern Economic Association, Philadelphia, February 27, 2010.

Available as DETU Working Paper 10-03: http://www.temple.edu/cla/economics/research/documents/detu_10_03.pdf

 

 

 PUBLICATIONS

"A Note on Graph Theoretic Approaches to the Theory of Social Choice," Public Choice, Vol. V, Spring 1969, pp. 93 - 98.

"Homothetic Separability and Consumer Budgeting" (with Blackorby, et al), Econometrica, Vol. 38, No. 3, May 1970, pp. 468 - 472.

"Short-Term Energy Supply and Demand," The Monthly Energy Review, October 1975, pp. 2 - 10.

"Short-Term Forecasts of Energy Supply and Demand" (with Alt and Bopp), Econometric Dimensions of Energy Supply and Demand, Edited by Askin and Kraft, Lexington Books, 1976, pp. 81 - 90.

"Short-Term Petroleum Supply and Demand Forecasting: An Applied Approach" (with Alt and Bopp), The Journal of Energy and Development, Vol. II, No. 1, Autumn 1976, pp. 86 - 102.

"Conservation in U.S. Petroleum Consumption, 1974 - 1976, and Its Causes" (with Bopp), Energy, Vol. 3, Fall 1978, pp. 533 - 538.

"Econometric Analysis of the 1974/75 Decline in Petroleum Consumption in the USA: Some Policy Implications" (with Alt and Bopp), Energy Economics, Vol. 1, January 1979, pp. 27 - 32.

"Model Assessment and Validation: Issues, Structure and Energy Information Administration Program Goals," Validation and Assessment Issues of Energy Models, Edited by Saul Gass, NBS Special Publication 569, National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.C., 1980, pp. 5 - 21.

"Quality Control for Analysis," Validation and Assessment of Energy Models, Edited by Saul Gass, NBS Special Publication 616, National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.C., 1981, pp. 65 - 77.

"On Organizing Analysis," Computer Assisted Analysis and Model Simplification, Edited by Greenberg and Maybee, Academic Press, New York, 1981, pp. 1 - 15.

"On Measuring the Effects of Higher Energy Prices" (with Bopp), Energy Economics, Vol. 4, No. 4, October 1982, pp. 218 - 224.

"The Structure of Qualitatively Determinate Relationships," Econometrica, Vol. 51, No. 1, January 1983, pp. 197 - 218.

"Qualitatively Invertible Matrices" (with J. Maybee), Mathematical Social Sciences, Vol. 6, 1983, pp. 397 - 407.

"Cash/Futures Pricing and Hedge Ratios" (with J. Lady), Advances in Futures and Options Research, Volume I, JAI Press, 1986, pp. 137 - 152.

Independent Expert Review of the Refinery Evaluation Modeling System. Performed for the Office of Statistical Standards, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, June 1988.

"A Comparison Of Petroleum Futures Versus Spot Prices As Predictors Of Prices In The Future" (with A. Bopp), Energy Economics, Fall 1991.

"Measuring the Effects of Changing Energy Prices" (with A. Bopp), in Oil in the Eighties: A Decade of Decline, edited by Siamack Shojai and Bernard Katz, June 1992.

"Forecasting Marginal Costs of a Multiple-Output Production Technology" (with C. Moody), Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 12, June 1993, pp. 421-436.

"Robust Economic Models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 1995, pp. 481-501.

"Qualitative Comparative Statics and Audits of Model Performance" (with D. Hale), Linear Algebra and Its Applications, 217, 1995, pp. 141-154.

"Nearly Sign Nonsingular Matrices" (with J. Maybee and T. Lundy), Linear Algebra and Its Applications, 220, 1995, pp. 229-248.

"Detecting Stable Matrices," Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence, 17,  1996, pp. 29-36.

"Analysis of ASHRAE 90.1-1989R Building Envelope Requirements" (with J. Glazer), Technical Report, Gas Research Institute, October 1997.

Nonparametric Comparative Statics and Stability (with Hale, Maybee, and Quirk), Princeton University Press, 1999.

"Topics in Nonparametric Comparative Statics and Stability," International Advances In Economic Research, 5, February 2000, pp. 67-83.

"Falsifying Economic Models" (with Andrew Buck), Economic Modelling, 22,  September 2005, pp. 777-810.

"The Scope of the LeChatelier Principle" (with James Quirk),  Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 381, April 2007, pp. 351-365.

“Evaluating Long Term Forecasts,” Energy Economics, Vol. 32, Issue 2, March 2010, pp.450-457.

“The Global LeChatelier Principle and Multimarket Equilibria,” (with James Quirk), The Review of Economic Design, 14, 1, March 2010, pp. 193-201.

“Structural Models, Information and Inherited Restrictions,” with Andrew Buck,  Economic Modelling, 28, Issue 5, November 2011, pp. 2820-2831..

“Structural Sign Patterns and Reduced Form Restrictions,“ with Andrew Buck, Economic Modelling, 29, Issue 2, March 2012, pp. 462-470.

Research in Progress

“A New Approach to Model Verification, Falsification, and Selection,” with Andrew Buck. Extension and resolution of the results published with Andrew Buck in 2011 and 2012 as cited above. Planned completion in AY 2014-2015. Target journal(s), American Economic Review or Econometrica.

“Comparative Statics and Forecast Evaluation.” Application of the method published in Lady (2010) cited above. Planned completion AY 2014-1015. Target journal, Energy Economics.

Temple Economics Department Working Papers

 “An Expanded Scope for Qualitative Economics,” with Andrew Buck. DETU Working Paper 10_07: http://www.temple.edu/cla/economics/research/documents/detu_10_07.pdf

“Structural Sign Patterns and Reduced Form Restrictions,“ with Andrew Buck. DETU Working Paper 11_02 (accepted for publication).

“Structural Models, Information and Inherited Restrictions,” with Andrew Buck. DETU Working Paper 11_03 (accepted for publication).