Transportation Sector: Distillate
Comparison of Individual
Differences With Total Effect
Variable # 1
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source Transportation: Distillate Fuel Oil 10/
Year
TRHDSP07.0814a LMFD07.0824a Sum
of Diffs
Total Diff Sum/Total
2010
-.0088892 -.530704 -.5395932 -.5406771 .9979954
2011
-.0186443 -.5406971 -.5593414
-.5606904 .997594
2012
-.0276494 -.5496712 -.5773206 -.5802894 .9948838
2013
-.0389333 -.5589504 -.5978837 -.6005583 .9955465
2014
-.05094 -.565309 -.616249 -.6183872 .9965423
2015
-.0633922 -.5712962 -.6346884 -.6363649 .9973655
2016
-.0757418 -.5768847 -.6526265 -.6544809 .9971667
2017 -.088397 -.5781388 -.6665359 -.6691132 .9961482
2018
-.1016269 -.578939 -.680566 -.6841149 .9948125
2019
-.1160588 -.5818481 -.6979069 -.7021699 .9939288
2020
-.1314979 -.5859208 -.7174187 -.7221828 .9934031
2021
-.146647 -.5883379 -.7349849 -.741518 .9911895
2022
-.1634097 -.5917711 -.7551808 -.7628031 .9900075
2023
-.1815834 -.5954781 -.7770615 -.7849188 .9899897
2024
-.1989508 -.6076221 -.8065729 -.8163781 .9879894
2025
-.2198925 -.6246424 -.8445349 -.853651 .9893211
2026
-.2404146 -.64188 -.8822946 -.8914528 .9897267
2027
-.2598457 -.6575556 -.9174013 -.9286137 .9879256
2028
-.2812624 -.6739492 -.9552116 -.9674397 .9873603
2029
-.3043442 -.6858606 -.9902048 -1.002263 .987969
2030
-.3276634 -.697197 -1.02486 -1.037668 .9876571
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Transportation: Distillate Fuel
Oil 10/
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and
Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Transportation: Distillate Fuel
Oil 7/
# 2) Table #18 Macroeconomic Indicators
(billion 2000 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)
Value of Shipments (billion 2000:
Manufacturing
# 3) Secular Trend Variable
Number of years with first data input year = 1
# 4) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by
Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Transportation: Distillate Fuel
Oil 10/
Exogenous
Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1 15.47646 -.013073 -.028976 -10.76693
Variable# 2 5017.071 .001109 .796854 46.384185
Variable# 3 18.5 -.014572 -.038609 -5.694912
Variable# 4 6.854441 -.009163 -.008995 -.383211
Constant
1.953154
Endogenous Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 6.982373 .02781 .997236 .990920198223676
Transportation
Sector Distillate Demand Scenarios
|
File |
Distillate
Price +/- 25% |
Manufacturing
Output +/- 10% |
|
Base |
B |
B |
|
TRLDSP07 |
L |
B |
|
HMFD07 |
B |
H |
|
TRDS107 |
L |
H |
|
TRHDSP07 |
H |
B |
|
LMFD07 |
B |
L |
|
TRDS207 |
H |
L |
|
TRDS307 |
H |
H |
|
TRDS407 |
L |
L |
“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case