Residential Sector: Distillate

 

Comparison of Individual Differences With Total Effect

 

Variable # 1

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and Source    Residential:      Liquid Fuels Subtotal      

 

Year           RSHDP07.0929a  RSLHH07.0926a  Sum of Diffs   Total Diff     Sum/Total     

 2010          -.020666       -.002038       -.022704       -.0232869       .9749688     

 2011          -.036406       -.0036939      -.0400999      -.040471        .9908305     

 2012          -.044801       -.005272       -.050073       -.0503529       .9944412     

 2013          -.0471799      -.006393       -.0535729      -.054237        .9877556     

 2014          -.050106       -.008206       -.058312       -.058718        .9930856     

 2015          -.052847       -.00994        -.062787       -.063004        .9965557     

 2016          -.055295       -.011456       -.066751       -.067011        .9961201     

 2017          -.0574909      -.0129319      -.0704228      -.070621        .9971935     

 2018          -.0596659      -.0142319      -.0738978      -.07417         .9963301     

 2019          -.062093       -.0158371      -.0779301      -.077891        1.000502     

 2020          -.064455       -.0173041      -.0817591      -.081513        1.003019     

 2021          -.066406       -.018575       -.084981       -.084548        1.005121     

 2022          -.068666       -.0200189      -.0886849      -.08785         1.009504     

 2023          -.070621       -.0210431      -.0916641      -.090777        1.009772     

 2024          -.0725089      -.0219489      -.0944578      -.0936249       1.008896     

 2025          -.073884       -.022747       -.096631       -.095853        1.008117     

 2026          -.075484       -.02376        -.099244       -.098361        1.008977     

 2027          -.07683        -.024662       -.101492       -.1005911       1.008956     

 2028          -.07831        -.0256801      -.1039901      -.1029871       1.009739     

 2029          -.078917       -.026208       -.105125       -.104363        1.007301     

 2030          -.079723       -.026876       -.106599       -.106012        1.005537     

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

  Sector and Source    Residential:      Liquid Fuels Subtotal     

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Residential:    Distillate Fuel Oil         

 

# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Key Indicators    Households (millions):      Total                     

 

# 3) Secular Trend Variable

    Number of years with first data input year = 1

 

# 4) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Residential:      Liquid Fuels Subtotal     

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            13.29753             -.006281              -.054072              -27.50907            

Variable# 2            124.255               .004515               .363196               7.98046             

Variable# 3            18.5                 -.00904               -.10827               -11.17192            

Variable# 4            1.539191              .675001               .672615               35.330555           

Constant                                     .195447             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               1.544652              .002424               .99656                3.07693254440783    

 

                                                                              Residential Sector Scenarios: Distillate

File

Price +/- 25%

Total Households +/- 10%

Base

B

B

RSHDP07

H

B

RSLHH07

B

L

RSDS107

H

L

RSLDP07

L

B

RSHHH07

B

H

RSDS207

H

H

RSDS307

L

L

RSDS407

L

H

“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case