Residential Sector: Distillate
Comparison of Individual
Differences With Total Effect
Variable # 1
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion
Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Residential: Liquid Fuels
Subtotal
Year RSHDP07.0929a RSLHH07.0926a Sum of Diffs Total Diff Sum/Total
2010 -.020666 -.002038 -.022704 -.0232869 .9749688
2011 -.036406 -.0036939 -.0400999 -.040471 .9908305
2012 -.044801 -.005272 -.050073 -.0503529 .9944412
2013 -.0471799 -.006393 -.0535729 -.054237 .9877556
2014 -.050106 -.008206 -.058312 -.058718 .9930856
2015 -.052847 -.00994 -.062787 -.063004 .9965557
2016 -.055295 -.011456 -.066751 -.067011 .9961201
2017 -.0574909 -.0129319 -.0704228 -.070621 .9971935
2018 -.0596659 -.0142319 -.0738978 -.07417 .9963301
2019 -.062093 -.0158371 -.0779301 -.077891 1.000502
2020 -.064455 -.0173041 -.0817591 -.081513 1.003019
2021 -.066406 -.018575 -.084981 -.084548 1.005121
2022 -.068666 -.0200189 -.0886849 -.08785 1.009504
2023 -.070621 -.0210431 -.0916641 -.090777 1.009772
2024 -.0725089 -.0219489 -.0944578 -.0936249 1.008896
2025 -.073884 -.022747 -.096631 -.095853 1.008117
2026 -.075484 -.02376 -.099244 -.098361 1.008977
2027 -.07683 -.024662 -.101492 -.1005911 1.008956
2028 -.07831 -.0256801 -.1039901 -.1029871 1.009739
2029 -.078917 -.026208 -.105125 -.104363 1.007301
2030 -.079723 -.026876 -.106599 -.106012 1.005537
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion
Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source Residential: Liquid Fuels Subtotal
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and
Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Residential: Distillate Fuel
Oil
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key
Indicators and Consumption (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Key
Indicators Households (millions): Total
# 3) Secular Trend Variable
Number of years with first data input year = 1
# 4) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by
Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Residential: Liquid Fuels
Subtotal
Exogenous
Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1 13.29753 -.006281 -.054072 -27.50907
Variable# 2 124.255 .004515 .363196 7.98046
Variable# 3 18.5 -.00904 -.10827 -11.17192
Variable# 4 1.539191 .675001 .672615 35.330555
Constant
.195447
Endogenous Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 1.544652 .002424 .99656 3.07693254440783
Residential
Sector Scenarios: Distillate
|
File |
Price +/- 25% |
Total Households +/- 10% |
|
Base |
B |
B |
|
RSHDP07 |
H |
B |
|
RSLHH07 |
B |
L |
|
RSDS107 |
H |
L |
|
RSLDP07 |
L |
B |
|
RSHHH07 |
B |
H |
|
RSDS207 |
H |
H |
|
RSDS307 |
L |
L |
|
RSDS407 |
L |
H |
“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case