NEMS and RSTEM Weather Sensitivities
Weather sensitivities were computed at the regional
level for each of residential and commercial sector electricity and natural gas
demand. The sensitivities were based upon two NEMS scenarios for which HDD and
CDD values were incremented individually by +10%. The arc elasticities
were then computed for each of the years 2010-2015. For QB and QS the base and
weather scenario consumption quantities; and, WB and WS the corresponding
weather variable values, i.e., WS = (1.1)WB, the arc elasticities calculated as:
In
the tables below, for NEMS, for each region and nationally, the elasticity
reported is the average for the period 2010-2015. For RSTEM, the value given is
the average of the monthly elasticities for the year
2008.
Residential Sector Electricity
Consumption
|
Region |
NEMS HDD Elasticity |
RSTEM HDD Elasticity |
NEMS CDD Elasticity |
RSTEM CDD Elasticity |
|
NEC |
.0625 |
.1995 |
.0389 |
.0424 |
|
MAC |
.0929 |
.1526 |
.067 |
.131 |
|
ENC |
.0807 |
.316 |
.0863 |
.1906 |
|
WNC |
.0878 |
.138 |
.0998 |
.1242 |
|
SAC |
.0822 |
.201 |
.1782 |
.2216 |
|
ESC |
.118 |
.174 |
.1495 |
.1261 |
|
WSC |
.0703 |
.1526 |
.2032 |
.3085 |
|
MTN |
.0701 |
.0437 |
.1001 |
N/A |
|
PAC |
.1009 |
.1163 |
.044 |
N/A |
|
National Average |
.085 |
.183 |
.1267 |
.1754 |
Residential Sector Natural Gas
Consumption
|
Region |
NEMS HDD Elasticity |
RSTEM HDD Elasticity |
NEMS CDD Elasticity |
RSTEM CDD Elasticity |
|
NEC |
.646 |
1.002 |
nil |
N/A |
|
MAC |
.6137 |
.7936 |
nil |
N/A |
|
ENC |
.6242 |
1.7758 |
nil |
N/A |
|
WNC |
.5934 |
.8561 |
nil |
N/A |
|
SAC |
.4974 |
.7169 |
nil |
N/A |
|
ESC |
.5761 |
.8772 |
nil |
N/A |
|
WSC |
.3797 |
.5581 |
nil |
N/A |
|
MTN |
.532 |
.8147 |
nil |
N/A |
|
PAC |
.4768 |
.5589 |
nil |
N/A |
|
National Average |
.5632 |
1.268373 |
nil |
N/A |
Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption
|
Region |
NEMS HDD Elasticity |
RSTEM HDD Elasticity |
NEMS CDD Elasticity |
RSTEM CDD Elasticity |
|
NEC |
.0337 |
.0261 |
.0792 |
.0108 |
|
MAC |
.0522 |
.0607 |
.0977 |
.0388 |
|
ENC |
.0456 |
.0907 |
.0962 |
.0307 |
|
WNC |
.0388 |
.0294 |
.0872 |
.1135 |
|
SAC |
.0376 |
.0206 |
.1571 |
.0748 |
|
ESC |
.0343 |
.1373 |
.1179 |
.5946 |
|
WSC |
.0257 |
.0468 |
.1637 |
-.1204(!) |
|
MTN |
.022 |
.0114 |
.1028 |
.0871 |
|
PAC |
.039 |
N/A |
.0819 |
.7944 |
|
National Average |
.0376 |
.0448 |
.1181 |
.2276 |
Commercial Sector Natural Gas
Consumption
|
Region |
NEMS HDD Elasticity |
RSTEM HDD Elasticity |
NEMS CDD Elasticity |
RSTEM CDD Elasticity |
|
NEC |
.4809 |
.5305 |
.017 |
N/A |
|
MAC |
.5217 |
.2774 |
.0079 |
N/A |
|
ENC |
.5423 |
.4878 |
.0026 |
N/A |
|
WNC |
.4903 |
.4359 |
.0008 |
N/A |
|
SAC |
.3111 |
.2787 |
.0299 |
N/A |
|
ESC |
.4288 |
.4318 |
.0138 |
N/A |
|
WSC |
.3077 |
.1709 |
.0079 |
N/A |
|
MTN |
.5806 |
.3527 |
.0135 |
N/A |
|
PAC |
.2639 |
.1726 |
.0065 |
N/A |
|
National Average |
.4455 |
.4915 |
.0098 |
N/A |
National Level Elasticity Ratio (RSTEM/NEMS)
|
Fuel Demand |
HDD Elasticity |
CDD Elasticity |
|
Residential Sector Natural Gas |
2.25 |
N/A |
|
Residential Sector Electricity |
2.15 |
1.38 |
|
Commercial Sector Natural Gas |
1.10 |
N/A |
|
Commercial Sector Electricity |
1.19 |
1.93 |