Commercial Sector Natural Gas Demand in the Middle Atlantic Region

NGCCP_MAC = C(1)

+ C(2)*EESPP_MAC

+ C(3)*(((ZWHD_MAC-ZWHN_MAC)/ZSAJQUS)*(OCT+NOV+DEC+JAN+FEB+MAR+APR))

+ C(4)*(((ZWHD_MAC(-1)-ZWHN_MAC(-1))/ZSAJQUS(-1))*(OCT(-1)+NOV(-1)+DEC(-1)+JAN(-1)+FEB(-1)+MAR(-1)+APR(-1)))

+ C(5)*FEB + C(6)*MAR + C(7)*APR + C(8)*MAY + C(9)*JUN + C(10)*JUL + C(11)*AUG + C(12)*SEP + C(13)*OCT + C(14)*NOV + C(15)*DEC

+ C(16)*TIME*D2001ON

+ C(19)*NGCCU_MAC(-1)*NGCCP_MAC(-1)/CPI2000_MAC(-1)

+ C(20)*NGCCU_MAC(-2)*NGCCP_MAC(-2)/CPI2000_MAC(-2)

+ C(21)*NGCCU_MAC(-3)*NGCCP_MAC(-3)/CPI2000_MAC(-3)

+ [AR(1)=C(18)].

For this specification,

NGCCP_MAC = Middle Atlantic commercial sector natural gas demand;

C(*) = the estimated regression coefficients;

EESPP_MAC = Middle Atlantic private service employment;

ZWHD_MAC = Middle Atlantic forecast HDD;

ZWHN_MAC = Middle Atlantic normal HDD;

ZSAJQUS = days in the month;

JAN, FEB, …, DEC = monthly dummy variables;

TIME = secular trend variable;

D2001ON = 0 before Jan 2001 and = 1 for Jan 2001 and later months;

NGCCU_MAC = natural gas price, commercial sector, Middle Atlantic region; (note that “(-t)” designates a lag of t-many months);

CPI2000_MAC = consumer price index, 2000=1.0, Middle Atlantic region; and,

[AR(1)=C(18)] = adjustment for autocorrelation.