Comparison of NEMS and RSTEM Demand Elasticities
Note
RSTEM regional demand projections are made by
individual, econometric forecasting equations.
NEMS projections are based upon models
of detailed technology choices for specific service demands and building types.
NEMS and RSTEM Elasticities For Residential
Sector Electricity Demand
|
Census Region |
RSTEM Driver #1 Households |
RSTEM Driver #2 Personal Income |
RSTEM Electricity Price |
NEMS Driver Households |
NEMS Electricity Price |
|
1
NEC |
.907 |
.086 |
-.196 |
.581 |
-.08 |
|
2
MAC |
.930 |
.065 |
-.055 |
.529 |
-.08 |
|
3
ENC |
.994 |
.005 |
-.230 |
.474 |
-.076 |
|
4
WNC |
.976 |
.022 |
-.460 |
.414 |
-.074 |
|
5
SAC |
.978 |
.020 |
-.222 |
.435 |
-.074 |
|
6
ESC |
.984 |
.015 |
-.237 |
.557 |
-.075 |
|
7
WSC |
.981 |
.017 |
-.172 |
.493 |
-.077 |
|
8
MTN |
.841 |
-.111(?) |
.011(?) |
.512 |
-.076 |
|
9
PAC |
.895 |
-.016(?) |
.001(?) |
.386 |
-.074 |
|
National Elasticity |
.956 |
.012 |
-.190 |
.484 |
-.076 |
For residential sector electricity demand
RSTEM household and own-price elasticities are
generally larger than NEMS.
NEMS and RSTEM Elasticities For Residential Sector Natural Gas Demand
|
Census Region |
RSTEM Nonfarm Wages |
RSTEM Natural Gas Price |
NEMS Driver Households |
NEMS Natural Gas Price |
|
1
NEC |
.108 |
-.098 |
.848 |
-.098 |
|
2
MAC |
.753 |
-.228 |
.922 |
-.088 |
|
3
ENC |
1.90 |
-.705 |
.693 |
-.087 |
|
4
WNC |
.079 |
-.072 |
.634 |
-.088 |
|
5
SAC |
.057 |
-.052 |
.640 |
-.085 |
|
6
ESC |
.112 |
-.101 |
.683 |
-.088 |
|
7
WSC |
.114 |
-.103 |
.845 |
-.078 |
|
8
MTN |
.076 |
-.088 |
.745 |
-.083 |
|
9
PAC |
.012 |
-.011 |
1.05 |
-.079 |
|
National Elasticity |
.871 |
-.323 |
.694 |
-.086 |
For residential sector natural gas demand
the RSTEM driver and own-price elasticities are
generally larger than NEMS.
NEMS and RSTEM Elasticities For Commercial
Sector Electricity Demand
|
Census Region |
RSTEM Driver 1: Private Sector Employment |
RSTEM Driver 2: Private Wages Paid |
NEMS Driver: Total Floorspace |
RSTEM Electricity Price |
RSTEM Gas Price |
NEMS Electricity Price |
|
1
NEC |
N/A |
.059 |
.642 |
-.094 |
N/A |
-.093 |
|
2
MAC |
N/A |
N/A |
.636 |
N/A |
N/A |
-.106 |
|
3
ENC |
1.11 |
N/A |
.660 |
N/A |
N/A |
-.123 |
|
4
WNC |
-.048 |
.597 |
.784 |
-.600 |
-.024 |
-.115 |
|
5
SAC |
.768 |
N/A |
.685 |
N/A |
N/A |
-.127 |
|
6
ESC |
.225 |
.070 |
.774 |
-.070 |
N/A |
-.114 |
|
7
WSC |
N/A |
N/A |
.690 |
N/A |
-.032 |
-.125 |
|
8
MTN |
N/A |
.223 |
.681 |
-.225 |
N/A |
-.106 |
|
9
PAC |
-.017 |
.241 |
.743 |
-.243 |
N/A |
-.112 |
|
National |
.353 |
.094 |
.686 |
-.097 |
nil |
-.115 |
For commercial sector electricity demand
the NEMS driver elasticity is generally larger and the own-price elasticity is
similar to RSTEM.
NEMS and RSTEM Elasticities For Commercial
Sector Natural Gas Demand
|
Census Region |
RSTEM Driver: Private Sector Employment |
NEMS Driver: Total Floorspace |
RSTEM Natural Gas Price |
NEMS Natural Gas Price |
|
1
NEC* |
N/A |
.723 |
N/A |
-.183 |
|
2
MAC |
1.951 |
.778 |
-..081 |
-.178 |
|
3
ENC |
.316 |
.749 |
-.071 |
-.184 |
|
4
WNC |
N/A |
.792 |
-.142 |
-.184 |
|
5
SAC |
.057 |
.781 |
-.034 |
-.192 |
|
6
ESC |
.636 |
.770 |
-.066 |
-.181 |
|
7
WSC |
-.129(!) |
.799 |
-.240 |
-.175 |
|
8
MTN |
.559 |
.754 |
-.144 |
-.187 |
|
9
PAC |
N/A |
.781 |
N/A |
-.177 |
|
National |
.481 |
.776 |
-.068 |
-.185 |
*Weather was the only RSTEM explanatory variable.
For commercial sector natural gas demand
both the NEMS driver and own-price elasticities are
generally larger than RSTEM.