NEMS Structural Demand Sensitivities

(These results were presented to the ASA Committee in October 2007)

For the results below, projections were made using the AEO2007 version of NEMS. For each fuel, data from nine scenarios were used: the AEO reference case and all possible combinations of high/low cases for price and households (residential) or floorspace (commercial). The data were pooled for the forecast years 2010-2015. The t-statistics presented are for the regression coefficient in the specifications below that correspond to the elasticity. The percentage bases for the elasticities are the means of the variables in the data sets used for the regressions, e.g.,