NEMS Impact Analysis

(AEO1998-AEO2003 for the forecast year 2006)

Summary Across All Fuels

AEO Version % Diff % Explicit % Lag % Total % Unexplained

1998 5.606 5.551 2.279 7.83 -2.225

1999 5.794 -1.782 2.118 .335 5.459

2000 4.865 -1.795 1.768 -.027 4.892

2001 11.06 .752 4.128 4.881 6.179

2002 14.364 2.602 5.107 7.709 6.655

2003 11.704 4.84 4.345 9.185 2.519

Average for all versions of NEMS: Residential Sector Electricity

Actual Projected Difference %Difference Impact %Impact

Quantity 4.611 4.5347 -.0763 -1.6567 N/A N/A

Price 27.4633 35.9832 8.5199 31.0217 -.1292 -2.8017

Households 112.6 112.1833 -.4167 -.3717 -.0085 -.185

Lag Quantity 4.638 4.4362 -.2018 -4.3533 -.1111 -2.4083

Weather:HDD 3996 4524 528 13.21 .0516 1.12

Weather:CDD 1368 1242 -126 -9.21 -.061 -1.32

Total % -5.598333

Explicit% -3.19

Lag% -2.4083

Unexplained% .1819 3.9433

Average for all versions of NEMS: Residential Sector Natural Gas

Actual Projected Difference %Difference Impact %Impact

Quantity 4.499 5.4457 .9467 21.0417 N/A N/A

Price 12.058 10.1201 -1.9379 -16.0717 .084 1.865

Households 112.6 112.1833 -.4167 -.3717 -.0123 -.2733

Lag Quantity 4.497 5.406 .909 20.2133 .5465 12.1483

Weather:HDD 3996 4524 528 13.21 .3517 7.82

Total % 21.56

Explicit% 9.413333

Lag% 12.1483

Unexplained% -.0233 -.5183

Average for all versions of NEMS: Commercial Sector Electricity

Actual Projected Difference %Difference Impact %Impact

Quantity 4.435 4.2738 -.1612 -3.635 N/A N/A

Price 24.9708 30.5798 5.609 22.4617 -.1392 -3.1417

Floorspace 74.8 72.7583 -2.0417 -2.7283 -.0846 -1.9067

Lag Quantity 4.351 4.1918 -.1592 -3.6583 -.053 -1.195

Weather:HDD 3996 4524 528 13.21 .0218 .49

Weather:CDD 1368 1242 -126 -9.21 -.0543 -1.22

Total % -6.971666

Explicit% -5.78

Lag% -1.195

Unexplained% .1481 3.3383

Average for all versions of NEMS: Commercial Sector Natural Gas

Actual Projected Difference %Difference Impact %Impact

Quantity 2.92 3.676 .756 25.89 N/A N/A

Price 10.3482 8.3936 -1.9546 -18.8883 .1457 4.9883

Floorspace 74.8 72.7667 -2.0333 -2.7183 -.0661 -2.265

Lag Quantity 3.089 3.6405 .5515 17.855 .1593 5.455

Weather:HDD 3996 4524 528 13.21 .1826 6.25

Weather:CDD 1368 1242 -126 -9.21 -.0031 -.11

Total % 14.32667

Explicit% 8.873333

Lag% 5.455

Unexplained% .3376 11.5633