NEMS Impact Analysis

(All error decomposition is for the forecast year 2006)

AEO 1998 Projections for Commercial Sector Natural Gas Consumption in 2006

Actual Projected Difference %Difference Impact %Impact

Quantity 2.92 3.646 .726 24.86 N/A N/A

Price 10.34825 7.542997 -2.8052 -27.11 .2090603 7.16

Floorspace 74.8 79.8 5 6.68 .162595 5.57

Lag Quantity 3.089 3.618 .529 17.13 .1528223 5.23

Weather:HDD 3996 4524 528 13.21 .1826 6.25

Weather:CDD 1368 1242 -126 -9.21 -.0031 -.11

Total % 24.11

Explicit% 18.88

Lag% 5.23

Unexplained% .022 .75

More Detailed Impacts