Detailed Error Attribution for

NEMS Residential and Commercial Sector

Electricity and Natural Gas Demand

(Impact Estimates From the AEO2007 of NEMS)

 

Projections of Residential Sector Electricity Consumption in 2006

 

AEO 1998 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.611          4.353         -.258          -5.6           N/A            N/A           

Price           27.46334       35.07848       7.6151         27.73         -.1154601      -2.5          

Households      112.6          112.3         -.3            -.27           -.0061479      -.13          

Lag Quantity    4.638          4.292         -.346          -7.46          -.1904194      -4.13         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0516          1.12         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.061          -1.32         

Total %                                                                                   -6.97         

Explicit%                                                                                 -2.84         

Lag%                                                                                      -4.13         

Unexplained%                                                                .0634          1.37         

 

 

AEO 1999 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.611          4.355         -.256          -5.55          N/A            N/A           

Price           27.46334       44.03569       16.5724        60.34         -.2512707      -5.45         

Households      112.6          112.2         -.4            -.36           -.0081972      -.18          

Lag Quantity    4.638          4.306         -.332          -7.16          -.1827145      -3.96         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0516          1.12         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.061          -1.32         

Total %                                                                                   -9.79         

Explicit%                                                                                 -5.83         

Lag%                                                                                      -3.96         

Unexplained%                                                                .1956          4.24         

 

 

AEO 2000 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.611          4.434         -.177          -3.84          N/A            N/A           

Price           27.46334       37.70496       10.2416        37.29         -.1552831      -3.37         

Households      112.6          112.5         -.1            -.09           -.0020493      -.04          

Lag Quantity    4.638          4.372         -.266          -5.74          -.1463918      -3.17         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0516          1.12         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.061          -1.32         

Total %                                                                                   -6.79         

Explicit%                                                                                 -3.62         

Lag%                                                                                      -3.17         

Unexplained%                                                                .1361          2.95         

 

 

AEO 2001 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.611          4.575         -.036          -.78           N/A            N/A           

Price           27.46334       36.64531       9.182          33.43         -.1392175      -3.02         

Households      112.6          112.6          0              0              0              0            

Lag Quantity    4.638          4.496         -.142          -3.06          -7.814899E-02  -1.69         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0516          1.12         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.061          -1.32         

Total %                                                                                   -4.92         

Explicit%                                                                                 -3.22         

Lag%                                                                                      -1.69         

Unexplained%                                                                .1908          4.14         

 

 

AEO 2002 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.611          4.879          .268           5.81          N/A            N/A           

Price           27.46334       31.70658       4.2432         15.45         -.0643354      -1.4          

Households      112.6          111.5         -1.1           -.98           -.0225423      -.49          

Lag Quantity    4.638          4.619         -.019          -.41           -1.045655E-02  -.23          

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0516          1.12         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.061          -1.32         

Total %                                                                                   -2.31         

Explicit%                                                                                 -2.09         

Lag%                                                                                      -.23          

Unexplained%                                                                .3747          8.13         

 

 

AEO 2003 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.611          4.612          .001           .02           N/A            N/A           

Price           27.46334       30.7284        3.2651         11.89         -4.950545E-02  -1.07         

Households      112.6          112           -.6            -.53           -.0122958      -.27          

Lag Quantity    4.638          4.532         -.106          -2.29          -5.833657E-02  -1.27         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0516          1.12         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.061          -1.32         

Total %                                                                                   -2.81         

Explicit%                                                                                 -1.54         

Lag%                                                                                      -1.27         

Unexplained%                                                                .1305          2.83         

 

 

Average for all versions of NEMS

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.611          4.5347        -.0763         -1.6567        N/A            N/A           

Price           27.4633        35.9832        8.5199         31.0217       -.1292         -2.8017       

Households      112.6          112.1833      -.4167         -.3717         -.0085         -.185         

Lag Quantity    4.638          4.4362        -.2018         -4.3533        -.1111         -2.4083       

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0516          1.12         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.061          -1.32         

Total %                                                                                   -5.598333     

Explicit%                                                                                 -3.19         

Lag%                                                                                      -2.4083       

Unexplained%                                                                .1819          3.9433       

 

 

A =-.015162

B = .020493

C = .550345

D = .0000978

E = .0004841

 

 

Projections of Residential Sector Natural Gas Consumption in 2006

 

AEO 1998 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.499          5.498          .999           22.2          N/A            N/A           

Price           12.05796       8.867684      -3.1903        -26.46          .1383346       3.07         

Households      112.6          112.3         -.3            -.27           -.008865       -.2           

Lag Quantity    4.497          5.467          .97            21.57          .5832096       12.96        

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .3517          7.82         

Total %                                                                                    23.66        

Explicit%                                                                                  10.7          

Lag%                                                                                       12.96        

Unexplained%                                                               -.0654         -1.45         

 

 

AEO 1999 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.499          5.339          .84            18.67         N/A            N/A           

Price           12.05796       9.875489      -2.1825        -18.1           9.463538E-02   2.1          

Households      112.6          112.2         -.4            -.36           -.01182        -.26          

Lag Quantity    4.497          5.309          .812           18.06          .4882126       10.85         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .3517          7.82         

Total %                                                                                    20.51        

Explicit%                                                                                  9.66         

Lag%                                                                                       10.85        

Unexplained%                                                               -.0827         -1.84         

 

 

AEO 2000 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.499          5.262          .763           16.96         N/A            N/A           

Price           12.05796       11.41985      -.6381         -5.29           2.766865E-02   .61          

Households      112.6          112.5         -.1            -.09           -.002955       -.07          

Lag Quantity    4.497          5.222          .725           16.12          .4359041       9.69         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .3517          7.82         

Total %                                                                                    18.06        

Explicit%                                                                                  8.37         

Lag%                                                                                       9.69         

Unexplained%                                                               -.0493         -1.1          

 

 

AEO 2001 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.499          5.508          1.009          22.43         N/A            N/A           

Price           12.05796       10.97699      -1.081         -8.97           4.687324E-02   1.04         

Households      112.6          112.6          0              0              0              0            

Lag Quantity    4.497          5.46           .963           21.41          .5790009       12.87        

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .3517          7.82         

Total %                                                                                    21.73        

Explicit%                                                                                  8.86         

Lag%                                                                                       12.87        

Unexplained%                                                                .0314          .7           

 

 

AEO 2002 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.499          5.553          1.054          23.43         N/A            N/A           

Price           12.05796       9.681019      -2.3769        -19.71          .1030648       2.29         

Households      112.6          111.5         -1.1           -.98           -.032505       -.72          

Lag Quantity    4.497          5.525          1.028          22.86          .6180819       13.74        

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .3517          7.82         

Total %                                                                                    23.12        

Explicit%                                                                                  9.39         

Lag%                                                                                       13.74        

Unexplained%                                                                .0137          .3           

 

 

AEO 2003 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.499          5.514          1.015          22.56         N/A            N/A           

Price           12.05796       9.899396      -2.1586        -17.9           9.359905E-02   2.08         

Households      112.6          112           -.6            -.53           -.01773        -.39          

Lag Quantity    4.497          5.453          .956           21.26          .5747921       12.78        

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .3517          7.82         

Total %                                                                                    22.28        

Explicit%                                                                                  9.5          

Lag%                                                                                       12.78        

Unexplained%                                                                .0126          .28          

 

 

Average for all versions of NEMS

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.499          5.4457         .9467          21.0417       N/A            N/A           

Price           12.058         10.1201       -1.9379        -16.0717        .084           1.865        

Households      112.6          112.1833      -.4167         -.3717         -.0123         -.2733        

Lag Quantity    4.497          5.406          .909           20.2133        .5465          12.1483      

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .3517          7.82         

Total %                                                                                    21.56        

Explicit%                                                                                  9.413333     

Lag%                                                                                       12.1483      

Unexplained%                                                               -.0233         -.5183        

 

 

A =-.043361

B = .02955

C = .601247

D = .0006661

 

 

Projections of Commercial Sector Electricity Consumption in 2006

 

AEO 1998 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.435          3.891         -.544          -12.27         N/A            N/A           

Price           24.97077       31.49346       6.5227         26.12         -.1618934      -3.65         

Floorspace      74.8           79.8           5              6.68           .207115        4.67         

Lag Quantity    4.351          3.839         -.512          -11.77         -.17037        -3.84         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0218          .49          

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0543         -1.22         

Total %                                                                                   -3.55         

Explicit%                                                                                  .29          

Lag%                                                                                      -3.84         

Unexplained%                                                               -.3864         -8.71         

 

 

AEO 1999 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.435          4.017         -.418          -9.43          N/A            N/A           

Price           24.97077       31.86          6.8892         27.59         -.1709899      -3.86         

Floorspace      74.8           66.93         -7.87          -10.52         -.325999       -7.35         

Lag Quantity    4.351          3.966         -.385          -8.85          -.1281103      -2.89         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0218          .49          

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0543         -1.22         

Total %                                                                                   -14.83        

Explicit%                                                                                 -11.94        

Lag%                                                                                      -2.89         

Unexplained%                                                                .2396          5.4          

 

 

AEO 2000 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.435          4.113         -.322          -7.26          N/A            N/A           

Price           24.97077       33.12944       8.1587         32.67         -.2024989      -4.57         

Floorspace      74.8           67.84         -6.96          -9.3           -.2883041      -6.5          

Lag Quantity    4.351          4.057         -.294          -6.76          -9.782968E-02  -2.21         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0218          .49          

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0543         -1.22         

Total %                                                                                   -14.01        

Explicit%                                                                                 -11.8         

Lag%                                                                                      -2.21         

Unexplained%                                                                .2991          6.74         

 

 

AEO 2001 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.435          4.453          .018           .41           N/A            N/A           

Price           24.97077       31.66407       6.6933         26.8          -.1661277      -3.75         

Floorspace      74.8           71.88         -2.92          -3.9           -.1209552      -2.73         

Lag Quantity    4.351          4.346         -.005          -.11           -1.66377E-03   -.04          

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0218          .49          

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0543         -1.22         

Total %                                                                                   -7.24         

Explicit%                                                                                 -7.21         

Lag%                                                                                      -.04          

Unexplained%                                                                .3392          7.65         

 

 

AEO 2002 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.435          4.576          .141           3.18          N/A            N/A           

Price           24.97077       28.43933       3.4686         13.89         -8.609065E-02  -1.94         

Floorspace      74.8           72.9          -1.9           -2.54          -.0787037      -1.77         

Lag Quantity    4.351          4.457          .106           2.44           3.527192E-02   .8           

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0218          .49          

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0543         -1.22         

Total %                                                                                   -3.65         

Explicit%                                                                                 -4.45         

Lag%                                                                                       .8           

Unexplained%                                                                .303           6.83         

 

 

AEO 2003 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.435          4.593          .158           3.56          N/A            N/A           

Price           24.97077       26.89249       1.9217         7.7           -4.769659E-02  -1.08         

Floorspace      74.8           77.2           2.4            3.21           .0994152       2.24         

Lag Quantity    4.351          4.486          .135           3.1            4.492179E-02   1.01         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0218          .49          

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0543         -1.22         

Total %                                                                                    1.45         

Explicit%                                                                                  .43          

Lag%                                                                                       1.01         

Unexplained%                                                                .0939          2.12         

 

 

Average for all versions of NEMS

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        4.435          4.2738        -.1612         -3.635         N/A            N/A           

Price           24.9708        30.5798        5.609          22.4617       -.1392         -3.1417       

Floorspace      74.8           72.7583       -2.0417        -2.7283        -.0846         -1.9067       

Lag Quantity    4.351          4.1918        -.1592         -3.6583        -.053          -1.195        

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .0218          .49          

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0543         -1.22         

Total %                                                                                   -6.971666     

Explicit%                                                                                 -5.78         

Lag%                                                                                      -1.195        

Unexplained%                                                                .1481          3.3383       

 

 

A =-.02482

B = .041423

C = .332754

D = .0000413

E = .0004313

 

Projections of Commercial Sector Natural Gas Consumption in 2006

 

AEO 1998 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        2.92           3.646          .726           24.86         N/A            N/A           

Price           10.34825       7.542997      -2.8052        -27.11          .2090603       7.16         

Floorspace      74.8           79.8           5              6.68           .162595        5.57         

Lag Quantity    3.089          3.618          .529           17.13          .1528223       5.23         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .1826          6.25         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0031         -.11          

Total %                                                                                    24.11        

Explicit%                                                                                  18.88        

Lag%                                                                                       5.23         

Unexplained%                                                                .022           .75          

 

 

AEO 1999 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        2.92           3.708          .788           26.99         N/A            N/A           

Price           10.34825       8.378529      -1.9697        -19.03          .1467939       5.03         

Floorspace      74.8           66.93         -7.87          -10.52         -.2559245      -8.76         

Lag Quantity    3.089          3.682          .593           19.2           .1713112       5.87         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .1826          6.25         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0031         -.11          

Total %                                                                                    8.28         

Explicit%                                                                                  2.41         

Lag%                                                                                       5.87         

Unexplained%                                                                .5463          18.71        

 

 

AEO 2000 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        2.92           3.457          .537           18.39         N/A            N/A           

Price           10.34825       9.498483      -.8498         -8.21           6.333219E-02   2.17         

Floorspace      74.8           67.89         -6.91          -9.24          -.2247063      -7.7          

Lag Quantity    3.089          3.433          .344           11.14          9.937782E-02   3.4          

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .1826          6.25         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0031         -.11          

Total %                                                                                    4.02         

Explicit%                                                                                  .62          

Lag%                                                                                       3.4          

Unexplained%                                                                .4195          14.37        

 

 

AEO 2001 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        2.92           3.75           .83            28.42         N/A            N/A           

Price           10.34825       8.88653       -1.4617        -14.13          .1089347       3.73         

Floorspace      74.8           71.88         -2.92          -3.9           -9.495548E-02  -3.25         

Lag Quantity    3.089          3.714          .625           20.23          .1805556       6.18         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .1826          6.25         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0031         -.11          

Total %                                                                                    12.81        

Explicit%                                                                                  6.63         

Lag%                                                                                       6.18         

Unexplained%                                                                .456           15.62        

 

 

AEO 2002 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        2.92           3.822          .902           30.89         N/A            N/A           

Price           10.34825       7.905337      -2.4429        -23.61          .1820596       6.23         

Floorspace      74.8           72.9          -1.9           -2.54          -.0617861      -2.12         

Lag Quantity    3.089          3.774          .685           22.18          .197889        6.78         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .1826          6.25         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0031         -.11          

Total %                                                                                    17.04        

Explicit%                                                                                  10.27        

Lag%                                                                                       6.78         

Unexplained%                                                                .4043          13.85        

 

 

AEO 2003 Projections

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        2.92           3.673          .753           25.79         N/A            N/A           

Price           10.34825       8.149945      -2.1983        -21.24          .1638305       5.61         

Floorspace      74.8           77.2           2.4            3.21           .0780456       2.67         

Lag Quantity    3.089          3.622          .533           17.25          .1539778       5.27         

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .1826          6.25         

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0031         -.11          

Total %                                                                                    19.7         

Explicit%                                                                                  14.43        

Lag%                                                                                       5.27         

Unexplained%                                                                .1776          6.08         

 

 

Average for all versions of NEMS

               Actual         Projected      Difference     %Difference    Impact         %Impact       

Quantity        2.92           3.676          .756           25.89         N/A            N/A           

Price           10.3482        8.3936        -1.9546        -18.8883        .1457          4.9883       

Floorspace      74.8           72.7667       -2.0333        -2.7183        -.0661         -2.265        

Lag Quantity    3.089          3.6405         .5515          17.855         .1593          5.455        

Weather:HDD     3996           4524           528            13.21          .1826          6.25          

Weather:CDD     1368           1242          -126           -9.21          -.0031         -.11          

Total %                                                                                    14.32667     

Explicit%                                                                                  8.873333     

Lag%                                                                                       5.455        

Unexplained%                                                                .3376          11.5633      

 

 

A =-.074526

B = .032519

C = .288889

D = .0003459

E = .0000248