Commercial Sector: Electricity

Comparison of Individual Differences With Total Effect

Variable # 1

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and Source Commercial: Electricity

High Price Low Floorspace

Year CMHEP07.0922a CMLFS07.0922a Sum of Diffs Total Diff Sum/Total

2010 -.0864344 -.1408944 -.2273288 -.2247524 1.011463

2011 -.1490407 -.231916 -.3809567 -.373023 1.021269

2012 -.1814179 -.3282537 -.5096716 -.4952397 1.029141

2013 -.1902208 -.4034109 -.5936317 -.5749669 1.032462

2014 -.1988168 -.449955 -.6487718 -.6270862 1.034582

2015 -.206532 -.4728451 -.6793771 -.656498 1.03485

2016 -.2129841 -.4906888 -.7036729 -.6804681 1.034101

2017 -.2192912 -.502975 -.7222662 -.698873 1.033473

2018 -.2261791 -.5139933 -.7401724 -.716351 1.033254

2019 -.2346754 -.524755 -.7594304 -.7346873 1.033678

2020 -.2446127 -.535954 -.7805667 -.754353 1.03475

2021 -.2553868 -.5469761 -.8023629 -.775281 1.034932

2022 -.2679801 -.559134 -.8271141 -.7985501 1.03577

2023 -.2816062 -.5711679 -.8527741 -.8229671 1.036219

2024 -.296216 -.5832548 -.8794708 -.8481221 1.036963

2025 -.3136539 -.5969639 -.9106178 -.8764458 1.038989

2026 -.331923 -.6100912 -.9420142 -.905755 1.040032

2027 -.3515368 -.6238008 -.9753376 -.9367528 1.04119

2028 -.372036 -.6381798 -1.010216 -.9688067 1.042742

2029 -.3909311 -.650383 -1.041314 -.9994831 1.041853

2030 -.4114332 -.6630983 -1.074531 -1.031781 1.041433

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and Source Commercial: Electricity

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and Source Commercial: Electricity

# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Key Indicators and Consumption Total Floorspace (billion squar: Total

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and Source Commercial: Electricity

Exogenous

Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic

Variable# 1 23.67473 -.02482 -.115481 -12.796979

Variable# 2 84.3015 .041423 .68628 15.913449

Variable# 3 4.984052 .332754 .325934 7.16882

Constant .525455

Endogenous Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier

Variable 5.088333 .050975 .984956 1.498697631758

Commercial Sector Scenarios: Electricity

File	Electricity Price +/- 25%	Floorspace +/- 10%
Base	B	B
CMHEP07	H	B
CMLFS07	B	L
CMEL107	H	L
CMLEP07	L	B
CMHFS07	B	H
CMEL207	H	H
CMEL307	L	L
CMEL407	L	H

“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case