Sensitivity Analysis of EIA Forecasting Systems

Background

This project has been underway since 2004. The overall purpose of the project is to develop and apply methods that enable the assessment of EIA energy system projections and projection methodologies.

The general methodology utilized is that of assembling solutions from EIA forecasting systems and deriving from these the sensitivities of the projections to important assumptions.

Initially, the project focused on NEMS and utilized the NEMS projections prepared for the Annual Energy Outlook. Subsequently, the NEMS solutions utilized were designed specifically to isolate the impacts of important assumptions, e.g., weather, prices, and economic activity. In the past year project scope has been expanded to include the Regional Short Term Energy Model.

Presentations of project results have been made to the ASA Committee on October 2004, October 2005, October 2007, April 2007, and October 2007.