Weather Elasticities

For an energy demand variable Q, the sensitivity to weather (as measured by CDD or HDD) is (say for HDD):

For NEMS scenarios run with isolated changes (+10%) in assumed HDD and CDD values, any of three methods may be used (for Q1 and HDD1 base case values; and, Q2 and HDD2 the weather scenario values):

Arc Elasticity = ((Q2-Q1)/(HDD2-HDD1))((HDD2+HDD1)/(Q2+Q1)).

Base % Elasticity = ((Q2-Q1)/(HDD2-HDD1))(HDD1/Q1)).

Constant Elasticity (E). For the base case and weather case the value of E is found by solving the linear system:

Log(Q1) = log(A) + E(Log(HDD1));

Log(Q2) = Log(A) + E(Log(HDD2)).

Given this,

E = dLog(Q)/dLog(HDD).

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and Source: Residential: Delivered Energy

year Arc Elasticity Base % Elas. Constant Elas.

2007 .3851 .3736 .3848

2008 .3853 .3738 .385

2009 .3823 .3708 .382

2010 .3806 .3691 .3803

2011 .3795 .3681 .3793

2012 .3784 .3669 .3781

2013 .3772 .3658 .377

2014 .3767 .3654 .3765

2015 .3756 .3642 .3753

2016 .3748 .3635 .3746

2017 .3746 .3632 .3744

2018 .3739 .3626 .3737

2019 .3724 .3611 .3722

2020 .3702 .3589 .3699

2021 .3672 .3559 .3669

2022 .3632 .352 .363

2023 .3587 .3475 .3584

2024 .3539 .3428 .3537

2025 .3481 .3371 .3479

2026 .3418 .3309 .3415

2027 .3354 .3246 .3351

2028 .3281 .3174 .3278

2029 .3199 .3094 .3197

2030 .3111 .3007 .3108

Average .3631 .3519 .3628