Regression Specification

 

 

Qt = a + b(Pricet) + c(Drivert) + dQt-1.

 

Residential sector driver = Total Households.

 

Commercial sector driver = Total Floorspace.

 

 

One year elasticity = b(P/Q).

 

Two year elasticity = (1+d)b(P/Q).

 

Long run elasticity = (1/(1-d))b(P/Q).

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

  Sector and Source:  Residential:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2004 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source:  Residential:    Electricity                 

 

# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Key Indicators and Consumption:  Households (millions):      Total                     

 

# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source:  Residential:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            31.07409             -.007849              -.043773              -18.356023           

Variable# 2            136.7967              .01434                .352063               16.070923           

Variable# 3            5.507634              .728676               .72027                41.635068           

Constant                                    -.159136             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               5.571908              .014935               .998995               3.68563046394716    

 

Data pooled for the years  2010 to  2030 for the solutions given below:

 

aeo2006.1119a.ran

hp2006.1130a.ran

lp2006.1201a.ran

dmdelec10.0214a.ran

dmdelec25.0214a.ran

dmdelec50.0214a.ran

dmdelec100.0214a.ran