Proposed Actions

(1) As needed, resolve weather measure and sensitivity differences between the AER, NEMS, and RSTEM.

(2) Specify major influences for NEMS energy product supply and demand components. Initiate routine exercise of generating NEMS solutions designed to isolate influences for each AEO and major study version of NEMS.

(3) Conduct regression analyses of the specifications identified in (2) and provide feedback to the specifications as appropriate.

(4) Initiate regular comparative statics analyses of NEMS forecasts based upon regression results.

(5) Prepare annual report presenting weather adjustments, comparative statics impact results, and other off-line assessments (as needed) of the sources of difference between NEMS projections and eventual outcomes.