Impact Workup Example
Regression results
for the AEO2000 version of NEMS.
Endogenous Variable:
Table
#2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless
Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variables:
#
1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998 Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and Source: Commercial.....................:
#
2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu
per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators and Consumption: Total Floor space(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
#
3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion Btu per
Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable#
1 12.08021 -.095032 -.129394 -34.939342
Variable#
2 71.5889 .049367 .398338 33.825154
Variable#
3 8.807958 .567612 .563502 55.473332
Constant
1.486568
Endogenous Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 8.872193 .003172 .999908 2.31273763379187
Impact analysis workup for the projection for 2005
Actual Consumption = 8.461
NEMS Estimate =
8.281295
Pct Diff = -2.12
HDD Weather
Ajustment (quads) =-.1178
CDD Weather Ajustment
(quads) = .101
Total Weather
Ajustment (quads) =-.0168
Simulated Output =
8.27
Pct Diff from NEMS =
-.14
Backcast = 8.3599
Pct Diff = -1.19
Backcast with Price
Only = 7.9
Pct Diff = -6.63
Backcast with Driver
Only = 8.63
Pct Diff = 2
Backcast with Lag
Only = 8.4
Pct Diff = -.72
Actual Price = 16.25
NEMS Price = 12.3208
Pct Diff = -24.18
Actual Floorspace = 74.28
NEMS Floorspace = 67.10787
Pct Diff = -9.66
Actual Lagged
Consumption = 8.399
NEMS Lagged
Consumption = 8.185784
Pct Diff = -2.54
Model
= Com_All_00S1 for Year = 2005
Commercial
Energy Consumption: NEMS - Actual =-.179705 (as % =-2.12)
Source NEMS Actual Impact Percent Elasticity Updated Elas
Com_All_00S1 8.281295 8.461 -.179705(DIFF) -2.12 n/a n/a
Price 12.3208 16.25 .3734 4.41 -.129394 -.085302
Driver 67.10787 74.28 -.3541 -4.18 .398338 .343691
Lag 8.185784 8.399 -.121 -1.43 .563502 .685347
HDD 4524 4228 .1178 1.39 .2118 n/a
CDD 1215 1444 -.101 -1.19 .0702 n/a
Total -.0849 -1
Uncertainty
-.0948 -1.12
Elasticity Update File =
Com_All_06S1